Welcome to the slowest week in the American Sports calendar. A week so slow, that we’re all going to bet on the Home Run Derby — an event that is famously chaotic and weird. Will you be screaming at an elderly man by the end of the night because he was throwing horrible batting practice pitches? It’s definitely a possibility. But that’s what makes this event magical, right? …Right?!
Let’s dive into the madness.
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Total Home Runs
Under 269.5 (-110)
Let’s start as big picture as possible. This total is actually pretty low in comparison to recent Home Run Derby results. In fact, there were 341 home runs hit in 2023, which was considerably more than the 309 long balls hit in 2021 at Coors Field. When you’re smashing home run records set in Colorado, you know things are getting out of hand. As such, MLB decided to slightly adjust the rules for this season’s edition. While players will still get three minutes to hit in Round 1 and Round 2, there is now a limit of 40 pitches seen. The final will remain two minutes, yet will feature a limit of just 27 pitches.
Crucially, bonus rounds have also been tweaked. In years prior, hitters were automatically given 30 seconds of bonus time and they could earn an extra 30 seconds by hitting two home runs of at least 440 feet during their actual round. Now, hitters will get unlimited pitches until they record three outs. They’ll be able to earn a fourth out if they hit a home run of at least 425 feet in the bonus period.
Got all that? Good. But how will it translate into the raw numbers? Let’s use last year’s Derby as an example. Julio Rodriguez set a record with 41 home runs in his first round performance. He needed 45 pitches in his three-minute round to hit 32 long balls, then he hit nine more homers on 15 pitches in the bonus time. Vlad Guerrero Jr. was even more voluminous. The eventual Derby winner saw 47 pitches in his three-minute opening round and 18 more in his bonus time. Each would have hit far fewer home runs under this new format. I believe that’s a trend we’ll see across the board on Monday evening.
Round 1
Bobby Witt Jr. Over 21.5 Home Runs (-120)
While the total number of home runs should be down, that doesn’t mean we won’t still have a couple standout performance in Round 1. Specifically, I’m looking at Witt Jr. to put on a show in his Home Run Derby debut. The sophomore appears to be made for this event. Though his current total of 16 home runs seems modest, Witt Jr. actually ranks top 10 in baseball in expected home runs (21.2), sitting just behind Rafael Devers (21.5) and right above Pete Alonso (19.6). Witt Jr. enters the All-Star break sitting in the 98th percentile of expected slugging percentage (.599) and the 93rd percentile in both average exit velocity (92.6) and barrel rate (14.9%). Trust me when I tell you that he isn’t lacking in the raw power department.
Witt Jr. is also one of only eight players with over 100 blasts so far in 2024, a metric which tracks batted ball events that have the ideal combination of squared-up rate and bat speed. Knowing that, it should come as very little surprise that Witt Jr. is fourth in baseball in average home run distance (418), tied with none other than Shohei Ohtani. In the simplest terms, Witt Jr. is a phenom. If it wasn’t for Kauffman Stadium, we’d probably be talking a lot more about his jaw-dropping home run abilities.
Winner
Gunnar Henderson (+475)
There’s a lot of different directions you could go with your Home Run Derby pick. For instance, I wouldn’t blame you for just backing the favorite in Pete Alonso, who is gunning for his third victory at this event — a figure that would tie Ken Griffey Jr. for the most ever. I literally just wrote up Witt Jr. and sang the praises of his Baseball Savant page. Heck, Marcell Ozuna, Teoscar Hernandez and Adolis Garcia aren’t exactly lacking in the raw power department, either.
Yet, at the end of the day, Henderson appears to have the most value. The Orioles’ shortstop has the fourth-best odds to win the Home Run Derby on the DraftKings Sportsbook, but the advanced statistics suggest that be should probably be the favorite. Not only does Henderson rank second in expected home runs within the field (25.2), but he sits first in bat speed (75.8) and blasts (112). The only player in baseball to simultaneously register higher marks than Henderson in all three categories? Aaron Judge. That’s not the worst company in the world to have when we’re discussing merits in a home run hitting contest.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
