It’s another sunny summer MLB Saturday and DraftKings Sportsbook offers plenty of ways to play. There are Money Lines, Run Lines and Player Props. Check out the best bets for the Saturday, July 13 MLB betting card.
Here are my favorite DraftKings Sportsbook picks for Saturday’s slate of MLB games.
Follow along on Twitter (@Race4thePrize) for updates.
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Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Toronto Blue Jays
The Pick: Yilber Diaz Over 4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+115)
Yilber Diaz debuted last week. He didn’t receive the Paul Skenes treatment. Outside of Arizona and fantasy baseball, the sporting world didn’t notice. It wasn’t a Paul Skenes performance. That’s a positive. Diaz is still under the radar. The Diamondbacks aren’t large favorites and Diaz’s strikeout projection isn’t that high.
The rookie steadily progressed through the Minors. Each year, he jumped two levels. His 2024 season began in Double-A before being promoted to Triple-A’s treacherous PCL. Diaz navigated the hitter-friendly parks with ease. He posted a 3.27 ERA in four starts (22.0 IP). In his final start before being called up, he struck out 13 batters in six scoreless innings.
Diaz allowed one run on a solo home run in his first MLB start. The Atlanta Braves managed four hits and struck out five times in his six innings of work. He mainly stuck to his high 90s fastball and slider, but Diaz did mix in quite a bit of his knuckle curve. His tertiary pitch generated a 33% Whiff Rate. The fastball and slider have been his strikeout pitches in the Minors. If the curve comes along, the sky is the limit.
Los Angeles Angels vs. Seattle Mariners
The Pick: Jose Soriano Under 5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-125)
Jose Soriano’s advanced stats are much better than his traditional stats. He’s doing things right, but he’s not getting the results. The results are all that matter. Advanced stats can suggest anything they want. The numbers on the board count. Since his return from the IL, Soriano has posted a 3.74 and 3.77 xFIP in his two starts. Both were against weak offenses and both were losses. He allowed three earned runs in five innings against the Cubs and four runs in four innings against the Athletics.
The Mariners strike out a lot, but they’re a first-place team. They win games. That means they score runs. They chase pitchers out of games. If Soriano can’t get through five against the Cubs and A’s, then how will he last against the Mariners. Last but not least, Soriano isn’t trying to strike batters out. He’s happy generating groundouts (60.6%). In most cases, that’s a great approach. This isn’t most cases. The Mariners weakness is their K-Rate and Soriano is not in position to take advantage of that.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins
The Pick: Andrew Abbott Over 5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-135)
The Marlins are awful against left-handed pitching. They do not strike out the most, but they strike out enough (22% K-Rate vs. LHP). Their offensive numbers against left-handed pitchers are embarrassing — .098 ISO, .264 wOBA and 68 wRC+. Life is easy for lefties. This means lefties last longer. They face more batters. The volume makes up for the average strikeout rate.
Andrew Abbott isn’t great. He’s slightly above average. That’s all that is needed. Against solid offenses, Abbott can struggle. In advantageous assignments, Abbott thrives. He struck out eight Rockies in his last start. Several starts before that, he struck out 10 Boston batters. Two things are at play. Abbott can beat bad teams, but there is another important factor. Both of those games were in Cincinnati. It’s paramount that pitchers limit contact in Cincinnati’s small park. Abbott knew the assignment — strike them out. That’s the task today. Make the Marlins miss.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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