Summer League sides and totals are live on DraftKings Sportsbook for the opening day of games in Las Vegas (July 12). I’m going to breakdown a betting strategy for Summer League, along with some bets for Friday’s card and leans for Saturday’s card.
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Let’s start with strategy on betting Summer League, because it can be tricky, and you’ll hear a lot of opinions. I think the most popular narrative is that you either shouldn’t bet early or should bet the first game or two smaller. I completely disagree with that. I want to be aggressive early and then ease off.
My wagers the last couple of years also back the idea that betting early is more profitable. Why is that? More clarity. When these teams show up to Vegas, they are looking to play the full roster, which generally includes some players that might be too talented for Summer League. We see it every year. The top guys play the first two games or so before being shut down. If we can handicap these teams based off their full rosters, it makes it much more simple to gage what you are looking at.
As Summer League goes on, then players start getting shutdown or sitting out certain games. We often don’t know that news until we see who is on the court. So once we get through the first four days or so, I probably won’t bet quite as many games before tip unless I know who’s playing.
The bets I will look for later in Summer League would be in-game wagers when we see who is playing. Or potentially some player props — looking to back someone who hasn’t played much, but should see a larger role with some of the better-known players being shutdown.
Hopefully that helps. So with that info in mind, here’s how I’m betting Friday’s games:
Orlando Magic -2.5 (-110) — 1.5-units
The Magic have the far more talented roster here, and I expect that to get them off to a quick start in Vegas. Anthony Black is on the roster, who actually started some games for Orlando during his rookie season. He’s the classic example of a guy that might just play a game of two, and is live to drop a 30-5-5 line.
Black is joined by recent first-round picks in Jett Howard and Tristan da Silva, so Orlando has some solid talent. But what I like even more is that the Magic bring some NBA experience to the table in guys like Theo Maledon, Charlie Brown Jr. and Jarrett Culver. Orlando also boast some size with Isaiah Todd, Jay Huff and Charles Bediako.
The Cavs have an NBA-caliber player in Craig Porter Jr. along with a talent in Emoni Bates. Cleveland will also get some attention with March’s darling DJ Burns on the roster. But the talent doesn’t stack up here.
Houston Rockets -4.5 (-110) — 1-unit
The Lakers have the advantage of already playing games in the California Classic, but that’s about where the upside runs out. Los Angeles lost both its games, including a 24-point blowout to the Warriors, and does not have much talent to show here.
Meanwhile, the Rockets have some good top-end talent, including last year’s Summer League MVP in Cam Whitmore. He’s joined by a top-three pick in Reed Sheppard, who has a pretty polished game for a rookie coming out after his freshman season. Houston also has a couple of former lottery picks fighting for their NBA careers in AJ Griffin and Kira Lewis Jr., both of whom could have major impacts.
The only reasons I’m making this my smallest bet are because I don’t love laying more than one possession in Summer League, and the Lakers should have better chemistry early given the games played.
Washington Wizards ML (-110) — 1.5-units
We have a matchup of the top-two selections in last month’s NBA Draft, as Zaccharie Risacher and Alex Sarr go head-to-head. I’ll role with the No. 2 overall pick here, as I feel Sarr is the better player between the two right now, but more importantly, has more help on the roster.
Kobe Bufkin was Atlanta’s first-round selection last summer, and should be the star of this roster. But according to the current roster, he’s one of just four players with any experience, and will be joined by nine rookies.
Meanwhile, on the Washington side, Sarr will be flanked by plenty of dudes with experience. You’ll recall veteran guards from the college level in Jared Butler and Markquis Nowell. Washington also has solid young wings with NBA-upside in Patrick Baldwin Jr. and Jules Bernard. But the Wizards could have some dominant players on the team in Johnny Davis (a top-10 pick with two seasons under his belt) and Justin Champagnie (who has played 56 NBA games over the last three seasons).
Denver Nuggets ML (-105) — 1.5-units
Setting numbers for Summer League is difficult, but I would’ve expected Denver to be favored by a few points here. The Nuggets have three players selected between 29 and 37 from the 2023 NBA Draft, all with NBA experience and all playing this year in Vegas — Julian Strawther, Hunter Tyson and Jalen Pickett. I expect that to be a really solid core for this team, with some rookie help from a trio with a ton of college experience in DaRon Holmes, PJ Hall and Trey Alexander.
Meanwhile, the Clippers have some experience in Terry Taylor, Kobe Brown and Amari Bailey, but doesn’t seem to have as much depth. Feels like Denver has the edges when it comes to top-end talent and depth, which is enough for me to make a play.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
