July 10 update: Berhalter has been fired as the USMNT manager, according to a Doug McIntyre. The Americans failed to advance to the knockout round at Copa America 2024, managing just 0.54 expected goals in the do-or-die group stage match against Uruguay. Berhalter has overseen some significant growth for US soccer but has been unable push this team to the next level and that’s hard to come back from, especially with the 2026 World Cup coming to North America. We’ll see how the federation handles the search, but expect the likes of Steve Cherundolo, Jurgen Klopp and Tata Martino to be in consideration along with others.
Gregg Berhalter will not continue as #USMNT coach, multiple sources tell @FOXSoccer:https://t.co/tPOZWgIGeI
— Doug McIntyre (@ByDougMcIntyre) July 10, 2024
The United States Men’s National Team entered Monday evening’s Copa America 2024 contest against Uruguay with a clear objective. While the Americans didn’t control their own destiny completely, a win would’ve likely sent them through to the knockout round. A draw meant they would need Panama to either draw or lose to Bolivia, and a loss meant they’d need Panama to lose. But not by too much since Bolivia would then be in the mix for a knockout spot.
Uruguay entered the contest having performed quite well in the previous two games, while the Nats were coming off a 2-1 loss to Panama after playing with 10 men for much of the match. That loss can’t entirely be pinned on USMNT manager Gregg Berhalter, who couldn’t have expected forward Tim Weah to punch a Panama player in the 18th minute. However the United States had all 11 men at its disposal Monday in what was as close to a must-win game as you could get. And once again, Berhalter oversaw failure.
Berhalter’s contract was up after the team’s exit at the 2022 World Cup in the round of 16 against the Netherlands. The States actually had a slight edge on expected goals (1.89 to 1.85) but lost the match 3-1, which some would point to their lack of creativity in the attacking third. Despite the loss, there was some reason for optimism about U.S. Soccer as a whole after the contest.
The young core of Christian Pulisic, Tyler Adams and Weston McKennie had just made a good run to the knockout round and largely played well against a top-tier European side. Supporting players like Weah, Sergino Dest and Matt Turner were emerging as contributors. Gio Reyna was mysteriously absent from the squad, which turned out to be due to a off-field beef between Reyna’s family and Berhalter. Reyna’s inclusion was unlikely to change the final outcome, and outside observers were generally split evenly between who was right and wrong in that situation.
But look beyond the overall result and you can see the problems with Berhalter’s approach. The Americans drew with Wales and England in the first two matches of the group stage, needing Pulisic heroics and an England victory to avoid flaming out. He seems to take the path of least resistance, to live to fight another day instead of taking charge of the situation. Berhalter has an impressive record as USMNT manager against mostly Concacaf competition, but he won less than 40% of his games in his previous stints with Swedish club Hammarby and MLS’ Columbus Crew.
In the seven-month gap between his first U.S. soccer contract and his current deal, the team would win the Concacaf Nations League title. Berhalter has won two Nations League titles as manager and has been to two Gold Cup finals, winning one. The Americans have started to get consistently good results against Mexico, going 5-2-0 against El Tri in the 2020s. They are 3-0 against Mexico in Nations League and 1-1 in Gold Cup finals, so there has been some progress against their arch-rival. However that has been countered recently with a 3-1 loss to Germany, a 1-0 loss to Slovenia and a 5-1 loss to a poor Colombia side just before Copa America.
According to DraftKings Sportsbook, the USMNT was priced at -650 to advance to the knockout round from Group C at Copa America 2024. The Americans were +140 to win the group, so it was clear how the oddsmakers viewed this team. The Bolivia game, as my colleague Collin Sherwin documented methodically, was largely about the team holding its nerve and getting a bit fortunate against a lesser squad. Berhalter isn’t to blame for Weah’s red card, but not much can save him from Monday’s disaster.
USA, in what was essentially a do-or-die game, managed three shots on target. The expected goals on those three shots was 0.16, meaning the chances didn’t actually have substance behind them. The Americans managed a whopping 0.01 expected goals in the first half, and finished the game with 0.54 expected goals. In short, they were never really a threat to score. USA managed 0.06 expected goals on set pieces, which is the one area where the manager can actually make a big difference.
One of the defining images of Monday’s match will be Berhalter apparently signaling the 1-1 scoreline of the Panama-Bolivia game to his team seconds before it allowed a goal to Uruguay. There’s some questions about whether VAR should’ve overturned the goal due to offside, and the referee was generally not maintaining control of the game. In fact, there’s a clip of him refusing to shake Pulisic’s hand after the contest (though he may have had good reason for that based on Pulisic’s taunt). The American star didn’t blame the official for the result, and that cannot be used as an excuse to bail out Berhalter this time around.
Christian Pulisic, on ref Kevin Ortega: “I saw things I’ve never seen before right in front of my eyes that I truly can’t believe. It’s not why we lost. We’re not out of this tournament because of officiating. … He gives no explanation. He’s doing things I just can’t accept.”
— Steven Goff (@SoccerInsider) July 2, 2024
Here’s what U.S. soccer had to say after the loss.
Statement from USSF:
— Laken Litman (@LakenLitman) July 2, 2024
“Our tournament performance fell short of our expectations. We must do better. We will be conducting a comprehensive review of our performance in Copa America and how best to improve the team and results as we look towards the 2026 World Cup.”
I’m glad the 2026 World Cup was mentioned. Copa America has started to mix in teams from other confederations in recent years, and Concacaf finally got the invite back in a big way. There were six Concacaf teams (USA, Mexico, Canada, Jamaica, Panama, Costa Rica) in this year’s edition, which was hosted by United States. The 2026 World Cup will have the United States, Canada, and Mexico as co-hosts. Two of those teams did not advance to the knockout stage in this tournament, though Mexico is going through more of a transition phase than USA.
Berhalter, and the American soccer system, cannot be allowed to remain comfortable over the next two years ahead of what many fans believe is the defining tournament for the sport in this country. The tactics haven’t evolved, the team has remained largely unchanged despite the lack of results against top sides, and Berhalter simply keeps getting opportunities. I’ve seen a similar type of management system with the Chicago Bulls and it’s led to a confused organization out of touch with the reality of the NBA. That cannot happen with this generation of soccer stars, who have developed their skills in the world’s top domestic leagues for years hoping to achieve international glory. They cannot be wasted by a manager who has pushed for sustenance instead of excellence. Even in Monday’s match, it felt like the Americans were set up to play for a draw and hope Bolivia would come through. That’s not how you win international tournaments.
There is a legitimate question with regards to making a change. There aren’t too many “slam dunk” managers out there, but that shouldn’t stop U.S. soccer from making calls. Liverpool manager Jurgen Klopp is likely recovering from some burnout, but he should absolutely be asked. He’ll likely decline but there’s no downside to making an offer. Xavi Hernandez and Thierry Henry are former players who have had success on the biggest stage, though their managerial stints have been somewhat underwhelming. Still, they know how to play attacking soccer. Henry is somewhat familiar with the American soccer structure having served as a coach for Montreal Impact in MLS.
Belgium are likely to make a change with Dominico Tedesco after exiting Euro 2024 in the round of 16. Tedesco doesn’t have a great track record, but Belgium had three goals ruled out thanks to VAR and likely would’ve finished at the top of their group had even one of those gone their way, meaning they wouldn’t face France in the round of 16. He should at least get a chance to present his vision.
Two MLS names to explore would be Tata Martino at Inter Miami and Steve Cherundolo at LAFC. It’s obviously easy to deploy a successful team when you have Lionel Messi and Luis Suarez in the roster, but Martino has coached Inter Miami to be the top scoring side in MLS so far this season. LAFC sits at the top of the West standings under Cherundolo, who has some pedigree as a former USMNT defender.
Canada manager Jesse Marsch might not have had some recent success at the highest levels of domestic soccer, but he did well in MLS and with RB Salzburg in Austria. He also has Canada in the quarterfinal round at Copa America 2024 despite being in a group with Argentina, Chile and Peru. Canada was +1200 to win the group and +250 to advance at DraftKings Sportsbook, with both marks ranking last among the teams in Group A. Marsch would at least consider the USA job.
Monday’s loss was a failure by any standard, and it cannot be allowed to spiral into the comfort of mediocrity. The Americans can’t make beating Mexico in Concacaf their only standard for success. Berhalter has done some good things but he hasn’t been able to elevate this team when it matters most. With a home World Cup only two years away, the time is now to make a switch.