One important thing to note before digging into specific systems: The Systems tool in the DraftKings Stats Hub now allows you to filter systems by team and not solely by grading. Here’s what the different views looks like:
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SYSTEM: Over on the total when road favorite is coming off a win
It’s been a while since I highlighted an over play. From a season-long standpoint, the best systems related to MLB game totals are still plays to the under. However, this one has been hot over the last 30 days, elevating this system to 132-124-8 on the season. This system has been in play 71 times over the last 30 days. During that span, the over is 39-28-4 in this setting.
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Three games fit this system on Tuesday:
- MIN @ CWS
- TEX @ LAA
- ATL @ ARI
Minnesota is one of the two teams from this bunch that’s played heavy to the over this season. But there are weather concerns surrounding that game, so the focus shifts to Atlanta-Arizona.
Taking the over on a game featuring Chris Sale and Zac Gallen isn’t something I’m looking to make a habit of. However, the Braves are 50-39 to the over, and they’ve gone over this game’s 7.5 total in seven of Sale’s 16 starts – despite his 2.71 ERA and 2.25 FIP. Similarly, the Diamondbacks have gone over this number in seven of Gallen’s 13 starts.
SYSTEM PICK FOR JULY 9
ATL-ARI over 7.5 runs
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SYSTEM: NRFI when road underdog is coming off a loss
We looked at a slightly broader version of this earlier in the season, expanding it to all underdogs following a loss, regardless of location. That play has hit 55.94% of the time (419-330) this season. Since we last discussed it, the play has gone 309-248 (55.47%), so those who’ve stuck with it have done well.
We’re going to focus on the road dogs coming off a loss this go-around. They’ve carried more of the weight in the broader system, going 275-210 on the season, which equates to a 56.7% hit rate. Over the last month, it’s picked up a bit, hitting 59.85% of the time over the 137 games it’s been in play.
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Four games fit this system on Tuesday:
- LAD @ PHI
- COL @ CIN
- WSH @ NYM
- OAK @ BOS
Thanks to the NRFI / YRFI tool in the Stats Hub, we know the Nationals are the best team to NRFI at 63-28. Additionally, the play has hit in the Mets’ last 10 games, elevated the play’s record in their games to 54-35.
Also, both starters have an ERA right around 3.00 in the first inning this season. Jake Irvin has given up six earned runs in 18 first innings. Jose Quintana has given up six earned runs in 17 first innings.
SYSTEM PICK FOR JULY 9
WSH-NYM NRFI -115
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
