Fantasy football is a weird game. To win big you need to hit on breakout players, which means taking some risk. But, you also need a good core of players producing steady fantasy points who you can’t get late in drafts due to their consistency. Picking those guys can be just as important as drafting players who outplay their ADP by a mile.
Picking “safe” players can be tough. There are plenty of players who, in their prime, have a down statistical season due to injuries, either to themselves or their quarterback. We want to pick players who have good injury track records, but this is a game where there is a car wreck on every play. Luck isn’t always going to be on our side.
We play under the assumption that bad luck could derail our fantasy footballing, but we persist. In persisting, our best bet for fantasy stability will be with No. 1 wide receivers. They are less likely than running backs to be hurt, we know they’ll be the target leaders on their team, and they likely won’t lose their job to backups, even if they miss time due to an injury.
Running backs are cursed in fantasy football
Running backs are riskier than wide receivers. Even when looking at great backs who have managed to stay healthy, we have to worry about their overall workload making them more prone to injury. Christian McCaffrey is the best fantasy back in the league, but we know he’s lost a lot of time due to injuries and with age and usage, he just isn’t as safe as we’d like. Sure, it’s nearly impossible not to grab him with the first pick, but that doesn’t make him safe.
We also need to look at how running backs are used. At one point in the ‘good ol’ days’ a running back could be the key to the offense. They’d get 300 to 500 touches a year and there were multiple backs in the league who could accumulate those numbers. That’s just not the way it is now. Sure, there are a few, but the odds of picking a true bell-cow back and that back playing a full slate of games are rare. Either injury or more-likely, losing time to complementary backs, just doesn’t give players a chance to see huge touch numbers.
Last season we had 14 running backs average 15 or more fantasy points per game. Of those 14, only four played 17 games and nine played 14 or more. Last season we had 15 of 19 wide receivers hit 15 fantasy points per game who played in 14 or more games. Add to that the higher fantasy totals for the top wide receivers vs. the top running backs overall and it’s pretty easy to say that the odds of a No. 1 receiver putting up more fantasy points than a No. 1 running back are fairly good in the modern game.
Each year is different of course and if a strong group of early round backs stay healthy and put up good usage and numbers, early receiver drafters could be in trouble. That’s the risk you take, but we know on average that’s just not what happens.
Age limit?
All players are different, but on average once a receiver hits 30, he’s likely going to start a decline. The peak age for receivers and fantasy points is right around 26-years old. If you’re looking for safety, plus fantasy potential, you’ll likely want to lean more toward the peak than the decline.
PPR caveat
One caveat is that all of these thoughts are much better for leagues that use PPR scoring and have slots for 3-4 starting wide receivers. Grabbing safe receivers early and having the space to start them week in and week out is great, especially when you likely need just two running backs to start. You can then draft your bench full of riskier running backs who should see time on the field due to injuries or just winning time versus another back.
Who to draft early?
CeeDee Lamb (WR1) — Lamb has been in the league four seasons and has only missed one game due to injury. He is one of the few receivers who plays outside in 2WR sets and then comes into the slot in 3WR sets, so his usage should again be one of the best in the league this season. Add in the Cowboys losing Michael Gallup and not bringing in any new blood at the position, and it could be another special year for the receiver.
Brandon Aiyuk (WR15) — Aiyuk has had back-to-back strong seasons and going into year 5 he has established himself as one of the top receivers in the game. He’s been relatively healthy, missing just one game over the last three seasons and he’s in one of the best offenses in the league. Brock Purdy has proven he can play in this league, but Kyle Shanahan has proven his system can put up offense even with average quarterback play. I like investing in offenses like that for safety.
Michael Pittman (WR18) — Pittman is poised to again see a huge target share in Shane Steichan’s RPO driven offense. The Colts will get back their starter in Anthony Richardson. How well he does as a passer is still up for debate, but Steichen’s scheme worked well enough for Pittman to catch 109 passes for 1,152 yards with Gardner Minshew throwing him the ball last season.
George Pickens (WR27) — Last year was a breakout season for Pickens, especially when you consider just how bad the Steelers’ offense was. He ended up catching 63 passes for 1,140 yards and five touchdowns, making him WR16 in fantasy last season. He is now going off the board as WR27 and won’t have to compete with Diontae Johnson for targets. At this point there is no WR2 on the team you can point to with any confidence. Sure, that will mean plenty of defensive help going his way, but with an upgrade at QB and on the o-line, it’s hard seeing Pickens not beating his ADP easily this season.
Calvin Ridley (WR35) — Ridley is poised to be Bill Callahan’s No. 1 WR in Tennessee and that usually means a lot of targets. Ridley has missed a season due to a gambling suspension, but has been relatively healthy. You of course have to take on a bit more risk the further down your fantasy draft you go, but with an ADP of WR35, I’m on board with Ridley.