Happy 4th of July! Games are scattered all throughout the afternoon and evening, starting as early as 11:30 a.m. I’ll give you some of my favorite plays you can tail on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Follow me on Twitter for daily MLB picks and info @SBuchanan24.
Bet at a top rated Sportsbook!
View the latest odds and bet online legally at a top rated Sportsbook! Place a bet now at DraftKings Sportsbook!*
*Odds and lines are for illustrative purposes only.
San Diego Padres at Texas Rangers
The Pick: Jake Cronenworth over 1.5 H/R/RBI -120
The Padres will continue their series against the Rangers and specifically, Max Scherzer this afternoon. He’s only made two starts since returning from the IL but has only allowed two runs on five hits with eight strikeouts through 10.1 innings. As has been the theme over the past few years, Scherzer’s numbers against lefties have been vastly different (and not in a good way) than righties. Lefties have tagged him with a .329 wOBA and a 6.41 FIP thus far compared to a .084 wOBA and a 1.58 FIP against righties. Cronenworth has good numbers against fastballs and sliders, the two main pitches that Scherzer throws. Because of this, I like him to go over 1.5 H/R/RBI.
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers
The Pick: Twins first five run line -0.5 -125
The Twins may put on a fireworks display on their own this afternoon against Kenta Maeda. The Tigers starter has really been struggling lately and his numbers across the board support that. First and foremost, his strikeout numbers have taken one of the biggest dips year over year. Last season, he averaged over a strikeout per inning with a 10 K/9. This season, he’s not even close with a 6.8 K/9. Both sides of the plate are hitting him hard, with a .345 wOBA to lefties and a .375 to righties. Finally, his road numbers have been atrocious, with an 8.53 ERA to go with a .417 wOBA and a 6.32 FIP. With all this in mind and Bailey Ober pitching for the Twins, I will be backing them to have the lead through the first five innings. When Ober faced the Tigers earlier this season, he tossed six innings, allowing just one run with six strikeouts.
Baltimore Orioles at Seattle Mariners
The Pick: Corbin Burnes over 7.5 strikeouts +100
The Mariners are a strikeout machine. Over the last two weeks, they have the highest strikeout rate in the entire league at 30.1%. They’re the only team striking out at least 30% of the time, although the Cubs are close behind. Burnes has seen a slight dip in his strikeouts numbers overall, but he can still rack them up if the matchup presents itself. That’s exactly what we have today, with Burnes facing this team for the second time. In that prior start, Burnes earned a season-high 11 strikeouts through six innings of work without allowing an earned run. While I can’t bank on double-digit strikeouts again, the rate the Mariners are striking out, I think he can earn at least eight strikeouts.
Follow me on Twitter for daily MLB picks and info @SBuchanan24
Place your MLB bets at DraftKings Sportsbook and bet online by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.
Refine your research with the DraftKings Sportsbook’s Stats Hub!
From Consistency Sheets and Matchup Tools to System Tools and Player Splits, the DraftKings Sportsbook Stats hub features tools to help with your betting research!
The Crown Is Yours: Sign up for DraftKings and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.
