Right off the top, I have to apologize. I didn’t get a chance to write this article on Monday, as it was Canada Day here in, well, Canada. Still, trust me when I say I would’ve had you bet against the Blue Jays. I promise.
We’re 31-20 (+10.0u) for the season. Let’s find some winners on tonight’s slate.
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St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates
Under 8.5 (-115)
Let’s talk about the elephant in the room right away. The total for this contest is pretty large, yet in Miles Mikolas’ last outing, he surrendered nine earned runs all by himself. That’s not ideal. However, prior to that start, Mikolas had managed a 3.17 ERA in his past eight games, limiting opponents in that stretch to a .193 average and a .245 wOBA. The best appearance in that run? Seven scoreless innings of one-hit baseball against this very same Pirates team.
You could say that that specific outing says more about Pittsburgh that it does Mikolas, but for our purposes, both are working towards the same desired result on Wednesday. The Pirates have certainly struggled to produce across the last 30 days, as the lineup ranks 28th in MLB with an 82 wRC+ in that span of time. Over the past two weeks? Pittsburgh is hitting a putrid .201 with a 75 wRC+.
We also can’t forget about the presence of Jared Jones. The 22-year-old has lost some steam thanks to an inflated walk rate and the emergence of his more famous teammate — Paul Skenes. Yet, Jones remains in possession of a 3.66 ERA and a 3.51 SIERA in his 15 starts in 2024. That’s quite the rookie campaign. In the 14 outings Jones has taken the mound outside of Coors Field, he’s surrendered more than three earned runs just once. That seems like the perfect trait to ensure a contest stays low-scoring.
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Tampa Bay Rays at Kansas City Royals
Under 8 (-105)
Remember all the good vibes that surrounded the Royals back in April and May? Those haven’t exactly sustained into the summer. Kansas City has fallen to the third-spot in the AL Central and the biggest reason for the drop has been their lineup. Bobby Witt Jr. is still doing his thing at a high level, but no one else is really helping. As such, the Royals are hitting .217 as a team across the past two weeks with an 80 wRC+. In that same span, Kansas City is averaging a microscopic 2.85 runs per game — easily the lowest mark in MLB.
To be fair, Michael Wacha is doing his part to try and propel the squad to victories. In the RHP’s last seven starts, Wacha has posted a 2.43 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP. It’s a span where the 33-year-old veteran has not allowed more than two earned runs in a single outing.
On the other side of this matchup, Ryan Pepiot has not been nearly as consistent as Wacha, but the advanced stats continue to love Tampa’s young ace-in-the-making. In fact, Pepiot’s xERA (3.66) and SIERA (3.51) are almost a full-run lower than his actual ERA (4.40). If you’re a fan of recency bias, Pepiot is directly on the heels of one of his best outings of 2024, surrendering just a single hit to the Mariners over 5.1 innings of work. He also added eight strikeouts.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
