Fantasy Baseball Picks Today: Top DraftKings MLB DFS Targets, Values for July 1

MLB scheduled three games on July 1, and DraftKings has two featured fantasy baseball slates. The first slate locks at 3:07 p.m. ET and includes each game — MLB $175K Bat Flip [$50K to 1st]. The Night Slate locks at 6:45 p.m. ET and features the New York Mets at the Washington Nationals and the Milwaukee Brewers at the Colorado Rockies — MLB $70K Relay Throw [$20K to 1st] (Night).

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PITCHER

Stud

Hunter Brown, Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays ($8,500) — This is a prime example of why advanced metrics exist. Heading into Memorial Day Weekend, Brown was 1-4 with a 7.71 ERA. He was a lock. He’s been a popular every week. Brown was striking out almost 10 batters per nine innings, but his Walk Rate was high and his luck was bad (1.9 HR/9 and .398 BABIP). Since that weekend, he cut the walks and home runs in half. The BABIP dropped 170 points. He’s 4-1 with a 1.47 ERA (3.04 xFIP). Always trust the advanced stats.

Value

Bryce Wilson, Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies ($6,000) — Once a Top 100 Prospect and a 2020 Playoffs hero, Wilson was traded to Pittsburgh by a frustrated Braves leadership. Years later, he’s settled in as a backend starter for the Brewers. That sounds dangerous in Colorado. Wilson moved into the rotation in late April and has maintained a 3.89 ERA. He’s only had two bad outings. One was two games ago. He surrendered three home runs to the hot San Diego Padres’ offense. That’s a red flag for a pitcher headed to Colorado, but Wilson’s pitch mix can succeed at Coors Field. Sinkerball pitchers fare much better than fastball pitchers because fastballs have less vertical break at altitude. Also, slider/cutter pitchers are less affected by the thin air because their pitches break horizontally. Wilson is a sinker-cutter guy.

INFIELD

Stud

Willy Adames, Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies ($5,500) — It’s a Coors Slate and it’s a three-game slate (two-game if you’re playing the night slate). This should be interesting. It’s hard to avoid Coors on a full slate. It’s impossible on Monday. Adames’ splits are shockingly bad. The Brewers have plenty of right-handed hitters that do not smash southpaws. Austin Gomber ($6,000) isn’t in a bad spot — matchup or location. Gomber’s home ERA is 3.57. It’s 5.44 on the road. So why Adames? It’s still Gomber. The advanced stats suggest Gomber’s traditional numbers are flukey. Gomber won’t pitch nine innings. Adames will get opportunities against a bad bullpen.

Jose Altuve, Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays ($5,300) — The pivot from Colorado is high-priced Houston. The 34-year-old plays like a kid in his 20s — .357 wOBA and 134 wRC+. The regular gripe is the lack of power. Every season his ISO starts low, but then slowly grows as the diminutive infielder gets his legs — tiny legs. On the season, Altuve’s ISO is .167. Over the last seven games, Altuve has a .290 ISO.

Value

Michael Toglia, Colorado Rockies vs. Milwaukee Brewers ($4,300) — Bryce Wilson isn’t Cy Young. He’s a serviceable value pick on a small slate with expensive bats. He can be targeted. It’s suitable to roster Rockies along with Wilson. Toglia’s average is .187 but his ISO is .260. He’s a swing-and-miss machine and a homer machine. Over the last nine games, he’s hit safely in six with four home runs (.424 ISO). This is a young Adam Dunn or Joey Gallo — Dave Kingman for us older folks.

Nick Senzel, Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets ($3,300) — The splits are on Senzel’s side on this slate. The former No. 2 pick overall (2016) never figured it out with the Reds and they gave up. He still hasn’t, but he has figured out lefties. Senzel has a .240 ISO, .338 wOBA and 119 wRC+ vs. LHP.

OUTFIELD

Stud

Christian Yelich, Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies ($5,500) — It’s a lefty-lefty matchup but Yelich can hit left-handed pitching — .174 ISO, .390 wOBA and 154 wRC+. Austin Gomber has a lower xFIP in the same-handed matchup but not by much. Gomber allows more hard contact to left-handed batters (38%) and home runs (2.6 HR/9).

Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays ($5,700) — Yariel Rodríguez ($5,000) was Toronto’s flashy offseason moves. It looks like a flash in the pan. The veteran from Cuba is dominating MILB but struggles in MLB. He threw 70 pitches in the first inning against the Guardians. He was bailed out by bad weather against Boston. The top of the order is in a great spot on the slate.

Value

Jacob Young, Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets ($3,700) — The 24-year-old lacks power, but he’s a consistent hitter vs. LHP (.347 wOBA) and he has speed (19 stolen bases). He’s hit safely in six of the last eight with four multi-hit games (.422 wOBA).

Jake Meyers, Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays ($3,200) — On paper, a lot of the players in Colorado do not look good. The Astros have the stats to back up the picks. Meyers has a .176 ISO, .334 wOBA and 117 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Those aren’t earth-shattering numbers, but they’re good and Meyers will likely hit with runners on base.

Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups for the full-day slate here: MLB $175K Bat Flip [$50K to 1st]

Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups for the night slate here: MLB $70K Relay Throw [$20K to 1st] (Night).

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.