The Euro 2024 knockout stage has finally arrived!
16 teams remain following an incredibly entertaining group stage, and action resumes this weekend with the trophy firmly in sight of all remaining squads.
In this article, I’m going to break down my favorite DraftKings Sportsbook bet for Switzerland vs. Italy. Without further ado, let’s get into it.
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Round of 16: Switzerland vs. Italy
End of Regular Time Result: Draw (+190)
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The defending champs barely snuck into the knockout stage thanks to a 98th minute equalizer by Mattia Zaccagni against Croatia, but their prospects of making a deep run into this tournament doesn’t seem promising.
The Italians have failed to inspire offensively over their first few games, scoring only three times, with two of those goals coming against Albania. Anything can happen in a knockout stage game, but it’s hard to imagine this squad finding the back of the net more than twice in regulation.
On the other side of this matchup, the Swiss have found more success offensively, racking up five goals across their three group stage matches. It’s been a balanced attack for this dark horse, as all five goals were scored by different players. Switzerland is a popular upset pick heading into this contest, and I’d lean towards that side as well for the ultimate result, but there’s a lot of data to suggest this one will go to extra time.
Firstly, between these two squads, three of their six group stage matches resulted in draws. There’s obviously a massive difference between the group and knockout stages, but each side failed to separate consistently against quality opponents.
That has specifically been a consistent issue for Italy, who have found themselves in extra time more than any other country over the last decade or so. A whopping 15 of Italy’s last 26 knockout matches in major tournaments have resulted in draws after the initial 90 minutes, including four of their last five.
I expect that trend to continue Saturday in Germany.
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*Odds and lines are for illustrative purposes only.
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