It was a tale of two seasons for the Buffalo Bills in 2023. They were 6-6 and long shots to make the playoffs heading into their Week 13 bye. Something clicked because Buffalo won five straight games to finish the season 11-6 atop the AFC East. The Bills beat the Pittsburgh Steelers in the first round of the playoffs but lost to the Kansas City Chiefs in the second round.
Buffalo was expected to make a move to overcome the Kansas City hurdle, but its biggest off-season move was trading away top wide receiver Stefon Diggs. With this loss, let’s preview how the Bills look for fantasy football purposes in 2024.
Josh Allen
Allen continues to be a great fantasy football quarterback. In real life, his career high 18 interceptions helped fuel the discourse on daytime sports talk shows for months. For fantasy football, though, Allen threw for 4,306 yards with 29 touchdowns and 18 interceptions, while rushing for 524 yards and a career-high 15 additional scores.
With the huge boost from his rushing numbers, Allen finished as the overall QB1 in fantasy football last season. He is being drafted as the top QB once again for 2024, but it definitely doesn’t feel like the ADP is matching the fact that his top wide receiver could be Khalil Shakir. Bills head coach Sean McDermott is high on Shakir, but that doesn’t mean that he is going to have 1,000 yards receiving and double-digit touchdowns. Coleman is an intriguing addition to the offense, but wide receivers typically take that step forward in their second season, not their first. I think Allen should be the third or fourth quarterback selected in drafts this year and feel like QB1 is a little bit of a stretch after losing Diggs.
James Cook
Buffalo rolled the dice with Cook and it paid off last season as he finished with 1,122 rushing yards. It may have been because Allen hogged all the goal line touches, but Cook finished with only two touchdowns on the ground. He did add 445 yards and four touchdowns through the air, showing off his dual-threat ability out of the backfield.
Cook finished as the overall RB11 in half-PPR scoring last season. Fantasy football managers have maintained expectations for him and are drafting him as the RB14 this season. He’s going right behind Rachaad White and ahead of Joe Mixon. I’m expecting Cook to maintain the target share that he saw last season and I’m not too worried about Ray Davis or Ty Johnson eating into his touches. The biggest problem he would face would just be if the lack of Diggs replacement hurts the passing game and so Buffalo has to abandon the run game early, but Cook should be a borderline RB1 this season.
Khalil Shakir
Buffalo is putting a lot of faith in Shakir in 2024. The former fifth-round pick had a solid season last year, bringing in 39 of his 45 targets for 611 yards and two touchdowns. He hasn’t done much to suggest that he can be the WR1 in an offense, but McDermott seems to think he can.
Shakir finished as the overall WR61 last season and is being drafted as the WR53 in 2024. Having Allen as his quarterback certainly helps, but Shakir would need to take a big step forward to be the guy who replaces Diggs. For now, try not to overdraft Shakir as he is between Jakobi Meyers and Romeo Doubs.
Keon Coleman
Coleman is an intriguing rookie that Buffalo took with the first pick of the second round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Fans are already falling in love with him from his wholesome introductory press conference interview moments, and people are hoping it translates to the field.
Coleman spent the first two years of his college career at Michigan State. As a sophomore, he had 798 yards and seven touchdowns. He transferred to Florida State last season, and his name became synonymous with highlight reel receptions. Coleman only had 658 receiving yards but came down with 11 touchdowns for the Seminoles. He is being drafted higher than Shakir as the overall WR46 in half-PPR scoring.
Dalton Kincaid
When Buffalo selected Kincaid in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft, there were questions about which tight end, between the rookie and Dawson Knox, would be fantasy viable. Kincaid didn’t have as crazy of a breakout season as Detroit Lions tight end Sam LaPorta, but he had a good year. He brought in 73 of his 91 targets for 673 yards and two touchdowns.
At the start of last season, Kincaid didn’t take over as the top tight end in the Buffalo offense and had to beat out Knox for more targets. He should be the Bills’ TE1 this season, which is likely why he is up to the TE5 based on his ADP for 2024. I don’t know that I like him more than Kyle Pitts or Evan Engram, but it isn’t crazy to think that Kincaid should be drafted in that TE5-7 range after just one season.
Tyler Bass
Bass was drafted last season as the K5 overall for fantasy football but finished as the K17. He made 49 of his 50 extra-point attempts, but he only kicked 29 field goals. Of those 29, he made 24 of them. Only eight of his makes were longer than 40 yards, so the high-octane Bills offense actually hindered Bass’ scoring potential. And the fact that Allen had 21 total turnovers. His ADP has dropped down to K15 for 2024.
D/ST
The Buffalo D/ST finished last season as the overall D/ST3. This year, kickoff rules have been adjusted, so there is anticipation for more returns and more exciting plays. The Bills’ wide receiver room looks like an island of misfit toys with Shakir, Mack Hollins, Curtis Samuel, KJ Hamler and Andy Isabella, but each of these wideouts could end up playing big roles on special teams. Also, McDermott is a defensive-minded head coach, so the Bills’ D/ST will be worth rostering this season. Currently, its 2024 ADP is D/ST8.