One important thing to note before digging into specific systems: The Systems tool in the DraftKings Stats Hub now allows you to filter systems by team and not solely by grading. Here’s what the different views looks like:
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SYSTEM: Road team on the Run Line following a loss
This has been a relatively steady play throughout the season, hitting over 57% of the time. Underdogs have done the majority of the work for this system, coming through over 61% of the time. But, road favorites coming off a loss are trending in the right direction, going 12-9 over the last 30 days.
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Nine games fit this system on Tuesday:
- SEA @ TB
- TOR @ BOS
- NYY @ NYM
- ATL @ STL
- MIA @ KC
- TEX @ MIL
- COL @ HOU
- OAK @ LAA
- WSH @ SD
The Yankees’ lineup hasn’t put up significant power numbers against left-handed pitching this season. However, they are 10th in on-base percentage against lefties (.323). Also, they hit for more power against lefties outside of Yankee Stadium (.159 road ISO against LHP vs. .126 home ISO against LHP).
On the other side, the Mets are bottom five in ISO and OBP against right-handed pitching at home. With Gerrit Cole on the other side fresh off a frustrating 2024 debut vs. Baltimore, the Mets’ offense may be in for another challenging day.
SYSTEM PICK FOR JUNE 25
NYY +1.5 (+114)
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*Odds and lines are for illustrative purposes only.
SYSTEM: NRFI when home team is coming off a loss
I was tempted to stick with last week’s NRFI system (home favorites coming off a win) after it went 21-12. It remains a play worth considering whenever it’s in play, having hit 57.88% of the time this season. But, I also want to look elsewhere.
NRFI when favorites are coming off a loss has been hitting over 52% of the time throughout the season, so nothing overwhelming. But, now seems to be the time to attack this play with it hitting over 57% of the time over the last 30 days.
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Five games fit this system on Tuesday:
- BAL vs. CLE
- SEA @ TB
- NYY @ NYM
- ATL @ STL
- CHC @ SF
BAL-CLE’s matchup on the mound is concerning, but there is another system in play for CLE that justifies the NRFI play (road underdogs coming off a win). CHC-SF is compelling because NRFI is 15-4 when the Cubs are a favorite after a loss, but Kyle Hendricks is on the bump. He’s is having a strong June, but the right-hander faced the Giants last time out, which means I’m not messing with that game.
Instead, I’m going with SEA-TB. NRFI is 49-32 in Mariners games. More of those NRFI have come at home (27-12) than on the road (22-20), but having Luis Castillo on the bump and NRFI being 26-17 when Tampa is at home helps offset that. Plus, neither lineup is particularly strong against right-handed pitching.
SYSTEM PICK FOR JUNE 25
SEA-TB NRFI -135
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
