Last Summer we had the most sure-fire No. 1 overall pick in the NBA Draft since LeBron James, as Victor Wembanyama headlined an otherwise pretty solid draft class. This Summer we’re in for a different story, as the No. 1 pick remains wide open just a day way from draft night. Not to mention, this is being discussed as one of the weakest draft classes of all-time.
If you’ve followed my work over the years, betting drafts is something that I’m generally heavily involved in. From 2019 through 2022 in particular, there were a lot of reasons to be heavily invested in the NBA and NFL Drafts. That said, markets have tightened up over the past couple of years — mostly due to this being an information-based market.
With the market more regulated, along with the wild uncertainty around this draft class, I’m taking it easy betting this draft. If anything changes, I’ll add plays, but the market has already been rapidly adjusting (and some of my plays have already moved significantly).
At DraftKings Sportsbook we are leading the industry in getting these markets out. So be sure to check back for more leading up to the draft. The NBA Draft will also span over two days for the first time, and there will be Day 2 markets once the first day concludes.
Here is my first NBA Draft Best Bets article with plays from last week, many of which are still available.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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Draft Position: Donovan Clingan OVER 3.5 (-115) — 1.5-units
I put this one out on Twitter on Monday, and the juice has since moved. I still think it’s fine to bet at a juicy price, as long as the prop stays at 3.5. There’s only so many spots to be selected in the top-3, and it’s starting to look like Clingan is more likely to go somewhere in the 4-8 range.
As of Tuesday afternoon, we have a -260 favorite to go No. 1, a -650 favorite to go No. 2 and a -190 favorite to go No. 3 — none of which are Clingan. The fits with the teams being the Hawks, Wizards and Rockets aren’t favorable destinations. So unless we see a trade from a team that’s fallen in love with Clingan, and doesn’t feel they can select him between 4-8, it’s tough to find top-3 destination.
Draft Position: Kyle Filipowski OVER 23.5 (-120) — 1-unit
Filipowski was a highly-touted prospect out of high school, but didn’t do himself many favors for his NBA stock. His draft prop has slid, but 23.5 should still be a fine number here. Flip could easily be a second-round pick.
Draft Position: Yves Missi UNDER 20.5 (+110) — 1-unit
Missi was very raw his freshman season at Baylor, but the big man is an elite athlete with a developing skill-set. He brings athleticism on both sides of the ball, and provides solid rim protection. I would go with a Clint Capela comparison here, which in a weak class like this is worthy of a top-20 pick.
1st to be Drafted: Ron Holland > Rob Dillingham (-125) — 1-unit
In last week’s article I played Dillingham OVER 9.5, and now it appears he may slide even more. Holland also hasn’t reached his full potential, but he was once ranked as a potential top prospect in this class. I expect a team to take a chance on Holland before Dillingham due to his size.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
