The Royals are -245 favorites in KC to open their series vs. Miami. Just looking at the matchup on the mound, those odds should come as no surprise.
Cole Ragans has been as consistent as any pitcher throughout the season. Across 16 starts, he’s only had a pair of hiccups, which is why he’s sporting a 2.63 FIP entering Monday’s contest.
Robbery Munoz has not experienced the same level of success. The rookie has a whopping 7.46 FIP through his first six MLB starts. He has put together a few quality outings, but that’s been the exception.
Looking at the setting these two lineups are in (KC facing a right-handed pitcher at home and MIA facing a left-handed pitching on the road), these two starters are set to have an experience similar to what’s been their standard throughout their respective 2024 campaigns. As seen in the images below from the Team Splits page in the Stats Hub on DraftKings Sportsbook, this is a preferred setting for Kansas City’s hitters and the opposite for Miami’s:
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There are a few betting options that jump out after looking through the numbers above:
- Ragans over 18.5 outs recorded -105
- Ragans under 4.5 hits allowed +115
- Ragans under 1.5 earned runs +115
- Munoz under 14.5 outs recorded +135
Ragans’ outs play is the only one of the four above not at plus-money, but it’s still right near even-money as of writing. This is the one I like the most of the bunch. He’s only gone over this mark in five of 16 starts. I’d think this would be a plus-money option as a result. Because it’s not — and, of course, Miami is so bad against righties in this setting — I’m drawn to this play most.
Regarding the other three plays, a couple things worth noting:
- Ragans has given up four or fewer hits in half of his 2024 starts.
- Ragans has given up one or fewer earned runs in half of his 2024 starts.
- Munoz has failed to record 15 outs in half of his 2024 starts.
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*Odds and lines are for illustrative purposes only.
As for the hitters in this game, here’s a look at how some of them have performed over their last five games against their hits line for Monday’s matchup via the Consistency Sheets in the DraftKings Sportsbook Stats Hub:
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Bobby Witt Jr. pulverizes right-handed pitching at home. He has a .468 wOBA and .268 ISO against righties at Kauffman. Big issue with him is there isn’t much value in betting him to go over 1.5 total bases (-155). He’s +115 to go over 1.5 hits, which could very well happen against Munoz, but I generally go that route with hits props.
Instead, the two bats I’m locked in on are MJ Melendez and Vinnie Pasquantino. Both are +105 to log over 1.5 total bases. Melendez has a brutal .211 average against right-handed pitching at home, but he has a team-best .300 ISO to go with a .335 wOBA. Melendez also has a 23.5% K rate in this setting, which is where Pasquantino enters the conversation. The 1B/DH has just an 11% K rate in this setting, plus a .200 ISO and .347 wOBA.
Left-handed hitters have a .477 wOBA and .375 OBP against Munoz. They do seem more likely to strikeout against the Miami starter than righties (25% K rate vs. 22.2%), but that wOBA makes up for it. Having gained some momentum recently, Melendez gets the edge. Same Game Parlaying the pair to each log over 1.5 total bases provides +272 odds.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
