We’ve been the definition of average so far in June, sitting at 6-6 on article plays. Heck, we’ve managed to go exactly 1-1 on our last three sets of MLB bets. Still, for the season as a whole, we’re 29-18 (+10.1u).
Let’s try and break out of the mediocrity with a big night on Monday.
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Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royals
Under 9.5 (-112)
I am flummoxed by this total. While Roddery Munoz has struggled a great deal in his time at the MLB level, this remains an insane amount of runs for a game played between the Marlins and Royals.
Miami has been among baseball’s worst lineups all season long, entering Monday’s action with a league-low .120 ISO and a NL-low 79 wRC+. The Marlins have been even more putrid when specifically faced with a left-handed pitcher, sporting MLB-worst marks in ISO (.101), wOBA (.264) and wRC+ (68). The southpaw in question this evening? Cole Ragans. The 26-year-old flamethrower who happens to possess a 3.13 ERA and a 2.64 FIP across his 92.0 innings in 2024. He’s one of the best LHPs currently tossing the pill. It’s that simple.
It’s also worth noting that Kansas City’s bats have cooled significantly as of late. Bobby Witt Jr. is still hitting with authority, but the rest of the Royals’ roster has struggled throughout June, with the team posting a 78 wRC+ that is the second-worst mark in baseball within that span. The only club worse? You guessed it: The Marlins (66). Munoz is bad, but I don’t think he’s bad enough to resurrect two teams’ run scoring abilities simultaneously.
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Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels
JJ Bleday Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110)
I don’t think I’ve written up a positional player prop all season long, but I just couldn’t ignore this matchup between [checks notes] …the second and third-worst teams in the American League. It should be must-watch television, right?
Maybe you can just flip over when Bleday is at the plate. The former fourth-overall pick is finally starting to flourish in Oakland. Since the beginning of May, Bleday is slashing .258/.354/.495 with a .236 ISO and a 145 wRC+. If it wasn’t for Mason Miller, we’d be having serious conversations about Bleday making the All-Star Game as the Athletics’ representative. My condolences to Marlins fans who continued reading this past the first bet.
Let’s not forget about the presence of Griffin Canning, either. The RHP has continued to struggle in his fifth MLB campaign, posting a 5.02 ERA and a 5.33 FIP in his 15 starts. In particular, Canning has had his issues with opposing LHBs, surrendering 2.18 home runs per nine and a .385 wOBA within the split. It might even be worth exploring Bleday’s long ball prop at +330 on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
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