The Cheat Sheet provides DraftKings fantasy golf players with course info, player history and the most noteworthy trends of the week to help them with their roster selections.
Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: PGA TOUR $800K Sand Trap [$200K to 1st]
The Field
This week marks another full-field event (150+ players) on the schedule in the Rocket Mortgage Classic, which is now in its sixth year as an official event on the PGA TOUR.
The field only has 10 top 50 players in attendance as of writing with Tom Kim (+1200) and Cameron Young (+1400) currently leading the pack in odds. Defending champion Rickie Fowler is also in the field and listed at +4000 on the DraftKings Sportsbook for 2024; Folwer won at +1600 last season.
Despite the larger field, the cut this week will feature its normal positioning (top 65 and ties make the weekend) and this venue has featured a Friday cutline as low as five-under-par in the past. For DraftKings purposes, getting 6/6 players through the cut will prove much more difficult than normal given the size of the field.
The Course
Detroit Golf Club (North Course)—Detroit, Michigan
Par 72, 7,330 yards; Greens: Bentgrass/Poa Annua
The Rocket Mortgage Classic replaced the old Quicken Loans event that was always played out East around this time of the season. The new event has found its new home at the North Course at Detroit Golf Club, a revamped and revitalized Donald Ross-designed venue that has roots in Detroit as far back as 1916.
In order to prepare for hosting duties on the PGA TOUR, many holes at Detroit GC were altered, lengthened, or even moved around. Some highlights of the reconfigured venue include a long par 5 which plays at 625 yards for the pros and a closing stretch of holes that includes a solid risk-reward par 5 (the 14th) with water guarding the green. Ultimately, even with the changes, this remains a very straightforward setup for players as the parkland setting (in the middle of Detroit) is very flat and offers clean lines to the flag on almost every hole — assuming you don’t miss the bigger fairways off the tee.
The venue played quite easily in its first season, as it produced the eighth-best scoring average on the PGA TOUR, with the field shooting an average of 70.113 for the week and the winner reaching 25-under-par. Some firmer greens in 2021 helped keep scoring higher that season, but the players had no trouble with the venue again in 2022, with the winner reaching 26-under-par — and a handful of names reaching 20-under or better.
The fairways and greens at Detroit GC rank out as easy to hit compared to the average PGA TOUR venue, and the overall average driving distance at this venue has been about 10 yards longer than at the average PGA TOUR stop. The driver will be a popular club this week and big hitters (who don’t spray the ball too much) have benefited from this setup in the past. While off-the-tee play isn’t necessarily the most important thing to focus on this week, two of the last three winners (DeChambeau and Finau) gained over 5.0 strokes off the tee during the week of their win.
The benefits of power aside, this course also caters to those who can find range on the poa greens and bring a solid enough iron game in to give themselves plenty of chances at birdies (and Eagles). Nate Lashley proved that you don’t have to be a big hitter to find success in Detroit, as he rode a +9.1 putting week into his first PGA TOUR win in 2019, getting to 25-under par that season — despite ranking just 44th in driving distance and gaining less than a stroke off-the-tee. Lashley used superior iron play to give himself a ton of mid-to-short range putts that season and other names like Troy Merritt and Kevin Kisner have found success at Detroit GC with a similar formula.
For fantasy players looking at possible correlations between this venue and others on the PGA TOUR, looking at results from other Donald Ross-designed venues may be something to note. Pinehurst No. 2, Plainview, East Lake, and Sedgefield (host of the upcoming Wyndham Championship) are all Ross designs. The 3M Open, played later in the summer at TPC Twin Lakes, has also produced some heavy leaderboard correlation as its bigger fairways and later parkland setting do compare well to Detroit GC.
2024 Weather Outlook: The weather this season doesn’t look like it will offer much help in terms of defending against low scores. There is a 50-60% chance of some early week rain on Tuesday and Wednesday that will soften up this older design; temperatures for the week are also slated to stay reasonable around 80 F. That means receptive greens will be the norm once again and there is an 80% chance of precipitation on Saturday that will help keep things from firming up. Wind or weather splits this week look mild over the first two days, although Friday afternoon does have gusts projecting 2-3mph bigger than Thursday. Other than that, targeting early starters on Thursday should be advantageous for one-round DFS lineups and first-round leader bets, given the rain slated for Wednesday afternoon. It’s not likely to create a massive split (1.0 strokes +/- or bigger) but early starters should have a softer course on the first day.
Last 5 winners
2023—Rickie Fowler -24 (in a playoff, over Adam Hadwin and Collin Morikawa)
2022—Tony Finau at 26-under (over Cameron Young, Taylor Pendrith, Patrick Cantlay 21-under)
2021—Cameron Davis at 18-under (over Troy Merritt and Joaquin Niemann playoff)
2020—Bryson DeChambeau at 23-under (over Matthew Wolff 20-under)
2019—Nate Lashley at 25-under (over Doc Redman 19-under)
Winners Stats and Course Overview
2023 Winner: Rickie Fowler (24-under-par)
2023 lead-in form (T13-T5-T9-T6-MC)
SG: OTT—+1.2
SG: APP—+7.6
SG: TTG—+10.9
SG: ATG—+2.1
SG: PUTT—+4.5
- Bryson DeChambeau was in fine form when he came into this event in 2020, having racked up five top-10s in a row before breaking through for his win.
- Rickie Fowler was also trending well coming into this event last season. He’d reeled off three top 10s in four starts just prior, including a T5 at the US Open; an event he led going into the final round.
- It should be noted though that in 2019 Nate Lashley didn’t carry much form into this event before breaking through here for a big week.
- Neither did Cameron Davis, who also had two MCs in his last five starts before winning, so great recent results haven’t meant much to two of the past five winners.
- While SG: Approach is always a metric to lean on, Finau, DeChambeau and Davis were helped by their length off-the-tee and some superb on and around-the-green play. Davis gained 6.3 strokes putting and around-the-green combined, while Finau bested that mark by gaining 7.0 strokes putting and around-the-green.
- From a venue perspective, Detroit Golf Club is a driver-heavy course and has been a great stop for the big hitters. The average driving distance of the field this week is approximately 10 yards above the PGA TOUR average.
- Wolff, Finau, DeChambeau, and Davis all stick out in terms of big hitters who have had success at this week’s venue, but Brandon Hagy and Bubba Watson (guys who also regularly reach 330 yards or more off-the-tee) also both placed top 10 at this event in 2021.
Finding Values (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Odds to win are one factor to think about when picking players (but not the only thing, so be careful putting too much weight on them). This section is going to detail a few of the players who have the best fantasy value compared to their DraftKings Sportsbook odds of winning this week.
Maverick McNealy +3000 and $8,900
Comparables:
Taylor Moore +5000 and $7,500
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
HORSES FOR COURSES
1. Troy Merritt ($6,300; 2nd-2021; T8-2020): Merritt was the hard-luck playoff loser at this event in 2021. The veteran has played well at the simpler layout, grabbing top-15 finishes the past three seasons. He did have a top 10 last month in Texas but his form has been poor of late.
2. Cameron Davis ($7,200; best finishes: win-2021, T14-2022): Davis won this event back in 2021 and has finished top 20 at Detroit the last seasons. His form is woeful at the moment but his upside at this course does give him a boost for projections this week.
3. J.J. Spaun ($6,400; best finishes: T8-2022): Spaun has played this event five years running and had ample success at this venue, posting a T8 in Detroit in 2022. He is 2nd in SG: Total at Detroit Golf Club and has never missed the cut here in five starts.
4. Chris Kirk ($8,100; best finishes: T12-2021, T14-2023): Kirk’s done well on Donald Ross’s designs in the past. He’s finished T21 or better at this event now in each of the past four seasons and ranks third in SG: Total at this event since inception.
5. Taylor Pendrith ($9,600; best finishes: 2nd-2022, T14-2023): We may see Pendrith contend for a second win this week. The Canadian has shown great upside at this course, getting to 21-under-par in 2022. He’s also coming off a T16 at the US Open — a career-best major championship finish.
RECENT FORM
1. Tom Kim ($11,000; 2nd-T26): Kim was an unlucky loser in some ways last week, as he had to head-to-head against Scottie Scheffler in a playoff. The South Korean has found his form after a rough start and projects first in strokes gained total stats over the last six events, in this field.
2. Robert McIntyre ($8,700; T16-MC-win): McIntrye bounced back from a missed cut at the US Open with a T16 last week in Hartford. He’s second in strokes gained total stats over the last six weeks and finding his comfort zone on the PGA.
3. Aaron Rai ($8,800; T19-T14): Rai continues to impress from a tee-to-green perspective. He’s finished top 20 in each of his last two starts, including a T19 at the US Open.
4. Akshay Bhatia ($9,800; T5-T16): Bhatia held his own against World Number 1 Scottie Scheffler until the final few holes saw him drop down to a T5 position. He’s a superb driver whose putting is firing hard right now, making him a dangerous man to fade on this course.
5. Adam Svensson ($7,600; T16-T56): Svensson is on an 11-event made cut streak. He’s flashing a lot of consistency off the tee and around the greens but needs to find his range with the putter to start producing more top 10s.
DRAFTKINGS DFS STRATEGY
Cash Games: Mitchell and Thompson are great building blocks
Keith Mitchell ($8,500) is a player who has plenty of upside on this course if he can just figure out how to make a couple of putts. He’s one of the best drivers in the game and benefits from the driver-heavy course in play this week. Right alongside him is another big hitter in Davis Thompson ($8,300) who has found two top-10 finishes now in his last six starts and is coming off a phenomenal effort at Pinehurst, where he grabbed a share of ninth. Thompson finished T24 here last season and has flashed good upside at these lower-scoring events throughout his career. Some other names to consider for this format include Maverick McNealy ($8,900 – see below) and Daniel Berger ($7,000)
Tournaments: Min Woo Lee is worth the price
Min Woo Lee ($10,500) does come in as the third highest-priced player in this field, but there is little doubt he possesses enough upside to pay off that price. He gained over 5.0 strokes off the tee in his last start at Pinehurst and is very much aligned with past winners of this event like Bryson DeChambeau given the advantage he has in that area. While he’s playing Detroit GC for the first time this year he’s done well on more expansive courses with Bent/Poa greens (like Augusta and LA Country Club) so I don’t expect a huge learning curve. Below Lee, I also like the big-hitting Ryan Fox ($8,100) who was T7 two starts ago in Canada and Englishman Matt Wallace ($7,400) who was in contention after three rounds last week in Europe.
MY PICK: Maverick McNealy ($8,900)
I have a feeling that McNealy is going to be a popular play this week for DFS. However, despite the potential for some chalky ownership numbers, he’s a player who is hard not to love at this price point. McNealy’s approach game has been trending upward over the short term (he’s 21st in SG: APP stats over the last 24 rounds) and he comes as one of the best birdie makers in the field, ranking 7th in BoB% over the the last 50 rounds.
From a profile perspective, it’s also quite clear he’s a solid fit for Detroit Golf Course. He’s long and straight off the tee (14th in SG: OTT stats over the last 50 rounds) and has had his best success on poa greens, landing runner-up finishes at the comparable Silverado course and the shorter Pebble Beach. In three starts at Detroit GC, he’s managed T8 (2020) and T21 (2021) finishes.
Unlike a lot of players in this field, he’ll be coming in off two weeks of rest (having not qualified for the US Open or the Travelers). However, missing out on those events may also create some extra drive to take advantage of his opportunity this week and ensure he’ll not be left out of any more elite fields in the second half of 2024.
While he stands out as a solid value for DFS, McNealy also has appeal in the betting market. He’s still priced at +3000 on the DraftKings Sportsbook and has appeal as a potential first-time winner, at an event where we have had a player’s breakthrough in the past.
MY SLEEPER: Nicolai Hojgaard ($7,300)
Despite this being a weaker field event there is some talent lurking further down this field that is worth noting for DFS and betting purposes. Daniel Berger ($7,000) had a strong US Open and is still extremely cheap to gamble on (as an upside play for DFS) while Matt Wallace ($7,400) has shown good form at points in 2024 and tends to elevate in these weaker field events.
For my money though, if we’re playing for upside, no one offers more than 23-year-old Nicolai Hojgaard, who has slumped after a hot start to the season but he may be finding some form as we head into the summer. Hojgaard’s last two finishes don’t jump off the page (T35 CDN Open, T50 US Open) but the Dane has gained over 2.0 strokes on approach in each of those starts and remains one of the bigger hitters off the tee, and a player most likely to benefit from Detroit’s runway-like fairways.
Hojgaard finished a tidy T21 at this venue last season, gaining over 4.0 strokes ball-striking, and also finished T14 at the Ross-designed Sedgefield in 2023, so there is reason to be bullish on him outside of recent form. He also putted well on poa greens early in 2024 at Torrey Pines, where he eventually finished 2nd to Frenchman Matthieu Pavon.
At 7.3k he’ll be a great lower-owned target for big-field GPPs, and at +6000/+600 makes sense as an outright/top-10 play on the DraftKings Sportsbook as well.
Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: PGA TOUR $800K Sand Trap [$200K to 1st]
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
