Almost three months of Major League Baseball are in the books. It’s time to attack the sportsbooks. Let’s look at some of the best bets for the Saturday, June 22 MLB betting card.
Here are my favorite DraftKings Sportsbook picks for Saturday’s slate of MLB games.
Follow along on Twitter (@Race4thePrize) for updates.
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Washington Nationals at Colorado Rockies
The Pick: Under 10.5 Runs (-110)
That’s right. Take the under at Coors Field. It defies traditional thinking. Runs have been piling up in Colorado this week. The two teams combined for 16 runs on Friday. The scoreboard operator has been wearing out the buttons. Saturday will be a day of rest. The offenses aren’t great. That often does not matter at Coors. The 10-run total defaults. The line is automatic when obviously elite pitchers don’t take the mound. Saturday’s pitching matchup does not feature Cy Young contenders. They’re not superstars but they’ve been stars. These two pitchers do a lot of things right and can succeed — or survive — in Coors Field.
Cal Quantrill doesn’t have flashy advanced stats. His SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA) is 4.74. He doesn’t generate swing-and-misses (9%), so his strikeout rate is low (17%). His walk rate is a little too high, as well (7%). That should be a problem for a pitcher in Coors Field, but Quantrill is making it work in his first season with Colorado. He doesn’t give in to batters. He’ll walk them or force them to hit his pitch. His groundball rate is 47% and his strand rate is 79.8%. The result is a 3.43 ERA.
Mitchell Parker is another pitcher the Velo nerds hate. He doesn’t have elite stuff. His spin rate is not off the charts. The southpaw rookie has a good fastball and curve, but for the most part, he just pitches. He opened his Major League career by holding the Dodgers to two earned runs in five innings and followed by shutting out the Astros across seven. He’s allowed three runs or fewer in 11 of his 12 starts (3.06 ERA).
Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardians
The Pick: Jose Ramirez Over 0.5 Home Runs (+400)
There is a wind tunnel in Cleveland. As mentioned in previous DK Network MLB Best Bets articles, Cleveland’s stadium was renovated, resulting in the ball flying out in rightfield. This is a huge advantage for left-handed batters. It’s been a boon for the boom of Jose Rameriz. His ISO is 66 points higher at home (.290 vs. .224). His ISO splits are the highest against right-handed pitching at home (.300). Rameriz is aware of the new phenomenon in Cleveland. His flyball rate is 58.2% in matchups with right-handed pitchers.
Jose Berrios has been solid against left-handed batters (.283 wOBA allowed to LHB). He’s also been lucky. His batting average against is .194 and his BABIP is .194. Regression is coming. Saturday night could be the start. The right-handed pitcher is allowing 1.52 HR/9 to left-handed batters. Since the beginning of May, his flyball rate is 42.7% and his FB/HR ratio is 17%. And he’s not missing bats either — 3.57 K/9 in June. The result is 12 home runs allowed in his last 10 starts.
Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres
The Pick: Over 9 Runs (+100)
Some day we will talk about these starting pitchers as Cy Young contenders. Maybe, we won’t. Either way, these prospects have potential. Potential is not present. Young pitchers go through growing pains. Randy Vasquez and Carlos Rodriguez are experiencing normal growing pains.
Vasquez has earned his 5.70 ERA. He doesn’t strike anyone out (15%) and batters are eating him up (.370 wOBA in 38 innings). Allowing contact to the Milwaukee hitters is not a good idea — .331 wOBA and 114 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Rodriguez has only made two Big-League starts. In his 8.1 innings, he’s allowed seven runs, 13 hits, three walks and a 41% flyball rate. Rodriguez can survive on strikeouts (9.8 K/9), but the Padres don’t strike out (19% K-Rate vs. RHP) and they hit right-handers hard — .332 wOBA and 120 wRC+.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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