Every team is in action tonight as we kick off the weekend. I’ll give you some of my favorite plays you can tail on DraftKings Sportsbook
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Seattle Mariners at Miami Marlins
The Pick: Mariners run line -0.5 first five innings -120
The Marlins are just a bad offense, man. It’s horrific. Against righties, whom they’re facing today, they’re slashing just .240/.290/.367, all of which are near the bottom of the league. They’re also just second in runs scored with 188, only better than the Chicago White Sox. Tonight, they’ll be facing George Kirby, who hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in four straight starts. The Marlins, as you’d expect, are struggling across the board. When facing righties, tonight’s expected lineup has a combined .288 wOBA with a .132 ISO and a 22% K%. Kirby throws a lot of fastballs, hovering around 39% of the time. This Marlins club has a combined .279 wOBA against that pitch. The same can be said about sliders, with a combined .271 wOBA. This is going to be a tough matchup for them, unlike the Mariners.
Trevor Rogers is throwing for the Marlins and has some poor numbers across the board. His 5.08 ERA is accompanied by 5.00 xERA, showing he’s been as bad as advertised. As a lefty, the Mariners will go very right-handed heavy. This has been a problem for Rogers, who has a .363 wOBA against them with seven of the nine home runs he’s allowed. I’d expect the Mariners to hold a lead by the time the first five innings have concluded.
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox
The Pick: Jack Flaherty over 17.5 outs recorded -125
This is a total that Flaherty is constantly going over. He’s recorded at least 18 outs in 10 of the 13 starts that he’s made. In two of the three that he went under, it was under injury circumstances. One of the starts, he exited due to back tightness but was in a great spot to go over, having only thrown 60+ pitches at the time of exit. In his last start, he only threw five innings, as the Tigers were being cautious with him in his first time back from the injury. Now he faces the worst offense in the league in the White Sox. Against righties, tonights lineup has a combined .296 wOBA with a 25% K% and just a 5.8% BB%. Flaherty faced this team in his first start of the year and went six innings, allowing just one run with seven strikeouts. I’m expecting another similar start tonight.
Boston Red Sox at Cincinnati Reds
The Pick: Tyler O’Neill over 1.5 bases +105
I’m always looking toward O’Neill when it comes to facing a left-handed pitcher. That’s what we’ll get tonight, as Andrew Abbott is taking the hill for the Reds. Abbott has a .351 wOBA against lefties at home this season, where this game will take place. Abbott is always struggling with home runs, posting a 1.4 HR/9. O’Neill enters this game with a ridiculous .505 wOBA, a .418 ISO and a 228 wRC+ against lefties this season. I think it’s pretty easy to see why I like him to go over his total base prop tonight.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.
