The majority takes place this afternoon. I’ll give you some of my favorite plays you can tail on DraftKings Sportsbook
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Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies
The Pick: Game Total under 12 runs -112
12 runs is a lot. Sure, this is at Coors Field and taking the under on the game total can always feel wrong. But, I’m interested and I’ll explain why. First, Gavin Stone has been great for the Dodgers. He comes into today with a 3.01 ERA and an xERA of 3.97. He induces a lot of contact with a 6.7 K/9 but a lot of those are ground balls, inducing them at a 44% rate. He’s faced the Rockies once already at Dodger Stadium and shut them out over five innings of work with six strikeouts. While Coors Field changes the whole dynamic, Stone has had a strong track record this season that I’m not thinking he’ll get blown up.
The other aspect is Ty Blach, who is pitching for the Rockies. His numbers aren’t great overall, but, oddly enough, they’re good at home. Through 38.1 innings, he has a 3.76 ERA with a .332 wOBA and a 4.21 FIP. Somehow, he’s been able to minimize the damage, despite pitching the majority of his season there this season. I have no doubt the Dodgers will tag him for some offense, but I don’t think it’ll be enough to cross this huge total of 12 runs. Blach doesn’t even need to be great in this start, if he can minimize the damage like he has, I think this game goes under.
Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres
The Pick: Christian Yelich over 1.5 bases +120
This looks like a great spot for Yelich against Padres starter Adam Mazur. He’s only made three starts but lefties have been giving him hell. He’s walked 10 (which doesn’t help this bet but wanted to point out his struggles) and has allowed nine hits to lefties with three of them going for extra bases. Yelich has been one of the Brewers most consistent hitters and enters tonight with a .381 wOBA and a 148 wRC+ against righties. In his limited work we’ve seen, Mazur has thrown a fastball and slider a combined 78% of the time. Yelich has done well against both pitches with a wOBA of .421 and .545 against them respectively.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.
