Last Summer we had the most sure-fire No. 1 overall pick in the NBA Draft since LeBron James, as Victor Wembanyama headlined an otherwise pretty solid draft class. This Summer we’re in for a different story, as the No. 1 pick remains wide open with less than a week until draft night. Not to mention, this is being discussed as one of the weakest draft classes of all-time.
If you’ve followed my work over the years, betting drafts is something that I’m generally heavily involved in. From 2019 through 2022 in particular, there were a lot of reasons to be heavily invested in the NBA and NFL Drafts. That said, markets have tightened up over the past couple of years — mostly due to this being an information-based market.
With the market more regulated, along with the wild uncertainty around this draft class, I’m taking it easy betting this draft. If anything changes, I’ll add plays, but the market has already been rapidly adjusting (and some of my plays have already moved significantly).
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1st Overall Pick: Stephon Castle (+5000) — 0.1-units
Outside of this being a wide open draft class, the initial top consideration for the No. 1 pick has refused to workout for Atlanta. Alexandre Sarr was once in the -250 range to go No. 1, but is no longer even the favorite since he doesn’t seem to want to go to the Hawks. With a lot of other international question marks and some pedestrian college talent to choose from, Castle has to at least be in consideration as an option.
The athletic wing put his skills on display during his freshman season, while wining it all at UConn. Castle is a two-way player that can essentially do everything on the offensive end. His weakness is considered his 3-point shooting (26.7%), but his free throws (75.5%) at least suggest he can improve. Unlikely he actually goes No. 1, but at a number like this, it’s worth a crack in this draft. Personally, this would be my top prospect in this class.
Draft Position: Stephon Castle U5.5 (-115) — 1-unit
If Castle doesn’t go first overall, there are still a few realistic landing spots for him in the top-five. Again, with such a lack of talent at the top of the draft, it’s hard to imagine a team with a high pick not targeting Castle. The most notable landing spot would be No. 4 overall to the Spurs. I initially got some Castle at U7.5, but I’m fine with it at this price.
Draft Position: Matas Buzelis U5.5 (-120) — 1-unit
Buzelis is a Chicago native that spent last season in the G-League, so like Castle, he comes with a bit more certainty than the international prospect. Buzelis was on the radar of a lot of elite college basketball programs, so NBA scouts have plenty of familiarity. He could be a surprise name that goes high in this draft. The Pistons have the fifth pick, and have been rumored as a landing spot.
Draft Position: Nikola Topic O9.5 (-130) — 1-unit
Topic did have a couple of things going for him entering this draft process — he’s a very versatile player that is one of the youngest prospects in the draft. However, it was confirmed earlier in June that Topic does have a torn ACL. This isn’t as big of a deal as it would be for most other prospects, given Topic is a project for whoever drafts him. But it certainly doesn’t help his stock. I think we see some college players fill out the back-end of the top-10, and Topic slides.
Draft Position: Rob Dillingham O9.5 (-105) — 1-unit
I don’t expect one of those college players that go late in the top-10 to be Dillingham, who should also slide. Dillingham is a great shooter with the ability to make difficult shots. He’s drawn some Lou Williams comparisons, but it much smaller. In the end, his lack of size combined with being a complete liability on the defensive end should have him fall more than initially expected. I was able to grab a juiced O5.5 when it opened, but I still like the current price.
I’ll have another article the week of the draft with more plays, but some other players to consider getting ahead of when the market opens on them:
- Kyle Filipowski OVER anything up to the low 20’s
- Cody Williams UNDER anything inside the top-10
- Zach Edey UNDER anything to the top-20
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
