DraftKings Sportsbook is the place to bet touchdowns this upcoming 2024-25 NFL season!
We are only 78 days away from Week 1 NFL action on Thursday, September 5th, where the defending back-to-back Super Bowl champs Kansas City Chiefs will take on the reigning league MVP and the Baltimore Ravens. Is there a better way to kick off the NFL season than with an AFC Championship rematch, Patrick Mahomes versus Lamar Jackson, and Derrick Henry’s debut in the purple and black? Sure, the game is months away, but the DraftKings Sportsbook Touchdown Scorer market is live, and there’s no better place to bet touchdowns this season than right here.
Let’s dive into the details of this AFC battle, then break down my favorite picks to score a touchdown in Week 1.
THE MATCHUP: BAL Ravens at KC Chiefs
Let’s get the obvious out of the way. Baltimore was as close as you could get to a Super Bowl birth before running into the Goliath that is Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs edged out the Ravens 17-10 in last season’s AFC Championship game, backed by a vintage performance from Mahomes and his No. 1 receiver Travis Kelce—who finished with 11 receptions for 116 yards and a score. Baltimore played frantically and made continuous mistakes, including three turnovers and a game-alerting goal-line fumble by rookie Zay Flowers. Tough.
The last time these teams met in the regular season was Week 2 of the 2021 NFL season, in which the Ravens defeated the Chiefs 36-35 off a superhero performance from their QB. Before this, Jackson was 0-3 against Mahomes, and today, the reigning MVP is 1-4. Plain and simple, Week 1’s Thursday Night Football matchup at Arrowhead will be revengeful and full of plenty of competition.
Kansas City is returning with relatively the same squad, but worked to strengthen its sub-par wide receiver core in the offseason by signing Marquise Brown to a one-year deal and snagging speedster Xavier Worthy in the draft. With star QB Patrick Mahomes, All-Pro TE Travis Kelce, aggressive and elusive RB Isiah Pacheco, and game-wrecking DT Chris Jones, the Chiefs are -155 to win Week 1 and the favorite to win the Super Bowl at +550 on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Let it be said, though, the Ravens have plenty of weapons of their own. Lamar Jackson is coming off of his second MVP season, putting up 3,678 passing yards, 24 TDs and 821 yards on the ground. Derrick Henry joined Baltimore on a $9 million deal, coming off of a 12 TD season with a 46.1% rushing success rate—while he is on the decline, Henry is still a big-bodied threat to tear through defensive holes.
WR Zay Flowers showed bits and pieces of promising wideout play, including his two-TD game in Week 12 against the Chargers. With Odell Beckham Jr. out of the mix, TEs Mark Andrew and Isaiah Likely, along with Flowers, are expectedly going to be Jackson’s favorite targets to start the season. This game will be a rematch of dominant AFC forces, and I expect the guys below to have strong chances of hitting paydirt.
TOUCHDOWN SCORERS
Isaiah Likely Anytime Scorer (+300)
Yes, Mark Andrews is back. But give me Likely to reach the end zone Week 1. Likely was an unexpected playmaker the latter half of the season, truly stepping up to the plate when TE No. 1 went down. The fourth-round pick from 2022 proved he can perform in big games. His impressive left-handed grab and run into the end zone in a 56-19 embarrassment of the Dolphins helped to clinch the top seed in the AFC. While the season is still a while away, Likely has been spotted executing many one-handed catches in practice—Odell Beckham, who? Likely scored six touchdowns his final seven games, and proved he’s not afraid to power through defenders or attempt a hurdle if needed. With eyes likely on Andrews, I’m taking #80 to score.
Travis Kelce Anytime Scorer (-110)
This one is more like a no-brainer. Kelce is Mahomes’ guy, and with a wide receiving core that consists of two guys who will play their first regular season game with Mahomes—“Hollywood” Brown and rookie Xavier Worthy—and a questionable Rashee Rice—who has yet to be suspended for his off-season actions—Kelce is a safe and comfortable receiving choice. Yes, there are other options on the roster, but I’d take Kelce in the first game of the season where the whole team will be working out the offseason kinks. While Kelce is showing signs of deterioration and is coming off his worst season statistically in the last eight years—984 receiving yards and five TDs—his passion for the game hasn’t wavered at all. He also led his team in number of targets with 131, target percentage at 27.85%, and was second behind Rashee Rice in red zone target share at 25.5%. In a tough AFC battle, I’d expect Kelce to read the end zone.
Zay Flowers Anytime Scorer (+130)
I like the guy. I see potential. While he only scored five times last season, Flowers showed numerous glimpses of star potential in his sharp, joystick-like cuts, ability to break tackles, and dynamic route running. He’s not one-dimensional, but can be utilized on the outside, deep downfield, or through the middle. Despite his small frame, Flowers is able to collect yards after the catch, averaging 5.1 YAC/Reception last season—and utilizes his short-area explosiveness to evade defenders. Flowers received the majority of targets last season at 23%, and was second in red zone target share—behind Sir Andrews—receiving 23% of red zone targets.
At the end of the day, this will be a revenge game for Flowers. Time to forget the fumble in the AFC Championship. This second-year wideout has been gifted a chance to erase that memory with a rematch Week 1, and he’ll come back hungry and ready to prove himself against the reigning champs in Arrowhead.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is meghantownsley) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
