The Florida Gators are in for a tough test in 2024. The SEC added Oklahoma and Texas and decided to forego the division structure that had held strong since South Carolina was added to the conference in 1991. This means that Florida will lose its yearly guaranteed games against Vanderbilt and South Carolina, and in 2024, the Gators sure could’ve used them.
Florida has the toughest strength of schedule among the 134 FBS teams. The Gators’ win total has been set at 4.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the over favored at -140 and the under installed at +120. Florida has won fewer than five games just once in the last decade, so is this line a gift or a trap with their 2024 schedule?
2023 Recap
The Gators finished last year with an overall record of 5-7 and went 3-5 in conference play. Florida had a tough test taking on No. 14 Utah to open the season and lost 24-11. The Gators rebounded by blowing out McNeese, upsetting then-No. 11 Tennessee and beating Charlotte. The only other wins Florida picked up were against Vandy and South Carolina, and it finished the season on a five-game losing streak.
Quarterback Graham Mertz had 2,903 passing yards, 20 touchdowns and only three interceptions over 11 games. Florida deployed a two-headed rushing attack between Trevor Etienne and Montrell Johnson Jr. The latter led the backfield with 817 yards on 152 carries. Etienne had 753 yards on 131 carries but led the team with eight rushing touchdowns compared to Johnson’s five.
Ricky Pearsall led the Gators in receiving, ending his tenure at Florida with 965 yards and four touchdowns in 2023. Freshman Eugene Wilson III looked the part of the next Gator great wide receiver with 538 yards and a team-high six receiving touchdowns in his first season. Wilson wasn’t the only freshman who made an impact on offense as tight end Arlis Boardingham had the third-most receiving yards for the team (289) and was tied with the second-most touchdowns (four).
Overall, Florida was a very average team in the SEC. Of the 14 teams in the conference last year, the Gators ranked sixth in yards per game (408.8), seventh in passing yards per game (259.3), eighth in rushing yards per game (149.5) and ninth in points per game (28.4). The defense wasn’t able to keep them competitive, allowing the fourth-most yards per game (382.2) and fourth-most points per game (27.6).
Billy Napier Hot Seat
How many years should a coach get before you start judging the temperature of their seat? Napier was brought in as the head coach for Florida in 2022. He was coming off three straight seasons with at least 10 wins at Louisiana, including a 12-1 record in 2021. Napier took over for Dan Mullen, who finished 6-7 in his final season in Gainesville and Napier proceeded to log another 6-7 record in his first season at the helm. Unfortunately, Napier and the Gators went in the wrong direction in 2023, finishing 5-7 and missing out on a bowl game for the first time since 2017.
Urban Meyer was Florida’s head coach from 2005-2010. Since his departure, no head coach has spent more than four years in charge of the Gators. Will Muschamp took over in 2011 and last coached in 2014 after a 29-21 total record. Jim McElwain was next but lasted only three years after accumulating a 23-15 record amidst growing strife between him and the administration. Mullen was fired in 2021 and ended his tenure with a 35-16 record.
It feels like the University of Florida gives its coaches extremely short leashes, so you have to wonder how long Napier’s is heading into 2024. It’s only his third season, but Napier is struggling to recruit with no bigger story than the fumbling of Jaden Rashada. The quarterback was reportedly promised a $13.85 million NIL deal to flip his commitment from Miami to Florida and was then only paid $150k. Rashada asked to be released from his letter of intent with Florida and ended up attending Arizona State. He has now signed with Georgia and is suing Napier and Florida over the NIL deal. With a step in the wrong direction in Year 2 and now this lawsuit, Napier is in dire need of a good season, and the 2024 schedule is expected to make that very difficult.
2024 Schedule
August 31 — vs. Miami
September 7 — vs. Samford
September 14 — vs. Texas A&M
September 21 — @ Mississippi State
September 28 — OFF
October 5 — vs. UCF
October 12 — @ Tennessee
October 19 — vs. Kentucky
October 26 — OFF
November 2 — vs. Georgia (Jacksonville, Florida)
November 9 — @ Texas
November 16 — vs. LSU
November 23 — vs. Ole Miss
November 30 — @ FSU
Looking at Florida’s schedule, you key in on the second half of the season. Games against Tennessee, Georgia, Texas, LSU, Ole Miss and FSU make up a brutal stretch to end the year. The good news is that the Gators are only on the road for four games outside of the neutral site for the World’s Largest Cocktail Party against UGA.
Florida learned from their mistake of scheduling Utah the past two seasons and now starts 2024 with a beatable Miami team. The Gators will be at home and taking on a Hurricanes squad that went 7-6 last season. If Florida can pick up a win here in what is likely one of their easier games, they can try and settle into a groove against Samford in Week 2. Texas A&M in Week 3 is at home and will be the first SEC game for the Aggies under new head coach Mike Elko. If Florida can be healthy and 2-0 heading into that game, I actually like their chances.
It’s best not to speak in certainties in sports, but it seems like if Florida can beat Texas A&M at home, it can go on the road and beat Mississippi State. The tough part about gauging their win/loss projections is that heading into their first off week in late September, the Gators could be 4-0 just as easily as they are 1-3. Coming out of the bye should be a win against UCF, followed by losses to Tennessee and a win over Kentucky.
Florida then has its second off week ahead of the World’s Largest Cocktail Party, which should be a loss for the Gators. They should also lose on the road against Texas before welcoming LSU to the Swamp. The Tigers lost Jayden Daniels, Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. from its offense and should come back down to Earth. This could be Florida’s final win of the season before a tough game against Ole Miss and rivalry week against Florida State.
Final Thoughts
The Gators and Napier need a bounce-back season. Most teams schedule one or two cupcake games per year, with one being toward the start of the season and one usually right before rivalry week as a tune-up. Florida has Samford in Week 2, but outside of that don’t have another easy game on the schedule.
Florida will have quarterback Graham Mertz back under center and brought in a familiar weapon for him. While he loses Pearsall, who went to the San Francisco 49ers in the 2024 NFL Draft, Mertz will have his top target from Wisconsin in 2022, Chimere Dike. The wideout finished with 689 yards and six touchdowns for the Badgers and has a good chance of being Mertz’s top target once again. The Gators did lose running back Trevor Etienne to Georgia, but this could give Johnson the opportunity to see a heavier workload in the run game, with Treyaun Webb eating some carries as needed.
Looking at the schedule, I want to say that Florida heads into Tennessee 5-0 because I do think the Gators can beat Miami, Samford, Texas A&M, Mississippi State and UCF. Chances are, though, that they drop one of those games if not two or more. I think Florida will lose to Tennessee, beat Kentucky at home, and then lose back-to-back against Georgia and Texas. The Gators beat should LSU, but then lose to Ole Miss and FSU. The best-case scenario is that they finish the season 7-5, but you don’t want to bet on a win total based on the best-case scenario.
What’s more likely is that Florida loses to Miami, beats Samford, loses to Texas A&M, and beats Mississippi State and UCF. They would be 3-2 heading into the end-of-year stretch, and out of their remaining seven games, the only confident game should be against Kentucky.
Florida’s line opened at 5.5 and has fallen to 4.5. It could fall further as the season nears, but for now, I think the Gators can get to five wins despite the tough schedule. If you can find the line still at 5.5 I’d say it’s a gift and take the under. At 4.5, it feels more like a trap, but I think the move is to take the over with the thinking that Florida can finish the season with at least five wins.