We’re having a great season on article plays, entering tonight’s MLB slate with a record of 27-16 (+10.3u). However, things have slowed so far in June, as we’re just 4-4 to begin the month.
Can we pick some winners on Monday night? Let’s dive in.
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Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies
James Paxton Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+130)
This might not seem like all that large a total, but I assure you, it is. While Paxton’s managed to somehow pitch to a 3.92 ERA in 2024, everything about his age 35 season is a massive red flag — with his inability to generate a swing and miss at the top of the list. To wit, the left-hander comes into Monday’s tilt with Colorado in possession of a fourth percentile strikeout rate (13.8%) and sixth percentile whiff rate (18.0%). Paxton’s average fastball velocity has fallen from 95.2 mph in 2023 to a career-low 93.4 mph. As such, his swinging strike rate has nosedived from 12.7% to a microscopic 7.4%. In his last 10 starts, he’s registered three strikeouts or fewer seven times. Woof.
This prop is just as much about quantity as it is about quality. There’s certainly a scenario where Paxton isn’t pitching well enough to go deep into this contest. The veteran’s xERA (5.06) and FIP (5.16) both suggest regression is on the horizon, while his league-high SIERA (5.74) screams it. If ever there was a place where Paxton’s incapability to suppress opponent contact would blow up in his face — it’s Coors Field.
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Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates
Under 8 (-102)
In the simplest terms: The Pirates are set up perfectly to produce a low-scoring game on Monday. The first element is obvious. Paul Skenes has been exactly as advertised so far at the MLB level, pitching to a 2.43 ERA and a 2.18 SIERA across his first six starts. In fact, if he had the innings to qualify, Skenes would lead all starters in K-BB% (30.8). Not bad for a 22-year-old who was pitching in the College World Series this time last year. There’s a reason he’s surrendered a single earned run or fewer in three of his last five outings.
The second element requires a little digging, but, essentially, Pittsburgh can’t hit right-handed pitching. The Pirates have mustered a respectable 101 wRC+ off of southpaws in 2024, yet that figures falls to an 83 wRC+ in the opposite split. The biggest reason for the difference? Power. Or a lack thereof. Pittsburgh owns baseball’s lowest ISO versus RHPs (.120). So, while the fact that this is Carson Spiers’ first big league start of 2024 isn’t ideal, his handedness should keep the Pirates’ bats in check. It’s also not like Spiers has pitched poorly for the Reds, posting a 2.33 ERA and a 2.53 FIP in his 19.1 innings.
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