The Cheat Sheet provides DraftKings fantasy golf players with course info, player history and the most noteworthy trends of the week to help them with their roster selections.
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The Field
The Travelers has almost always been held the week after the US Open and this year will be no different. Most of the top players in the OWGR are in attendance as the event does have signature status and will feature a reduced field with NO cut. The event also tends to rank highly among the players just in terms of hospitality, and the fun course setup is a good unwind for the pros off of what is always a grueling U.S. Open.
As of writing, the field is set at 72 players although there is always the potential for withdrawals as the week goes on. Three sponsor’s exemptions for this event and were given out with Billy Horschel, Adam Scott, and Webb Simpson all gaining entry. Horschel already has a win on the season but Simpson missed the cut last week and hasn’t recorded a top 20 in any of his PGA starts this year. Players coming in off disappointing US Open results include Viktor Hovland, Max Homa, and Justin Rose who all missed the cut last week.
For DFS, with no cut in play, there will be more ways to go about making optimal lineups this week although the choices at the bottom of the field won’t be as plentiful with the smaller field.
The Course
TPC River Highlands—Cromwell, Connecticut
Par 70, 6,841 yards; Greens: Bentgrass/Poa
TPC River Highlands is a short par 70, featuring smaller bentgrass/poa greens and an eclectic blend of holes — it’s also the place where Jim Furyk had one of the greatest rounds of fantasy golf ever when he shot 58 on Sunday in 2016. In 2020, this venue was ranked just 32nd in terms of toughness (out of 41 ranked venues). Last season Rory McIlroy, when discussing the course, suggested that technology had “passed this course by” and even described it as obsolete. He’s likely not wrong.
There are only two par 5’s on the course, but one of them is the extremely reachable 523-yard 13th hole, which should yield a high number of birdies and eagles. The course only has two par 5’s, but it also features two very drivable par 4’s, one of which is the 15th hole, that tends to play at under 300 yards most days and allows players to be ultra-aggressive, bringing in little chance of bogey or worse. There are also eight par 4’s that measure between 400-450 yards, making distance off the tee less of an issue, but placement and short approaches more vital. Accuracy stats off the tee tend to rise at River Highlands but the average driving distance is lower than usual just thanks to the number of holes with doglegs.
The course itself was originally designed back in 1928, but it was reworked by perennial PGA course designer Pete Dye in 1982. It is somewhat comparable to other more technical tracks around the PGA, but it does differ in some respects from older venues like Waialae CC and Harbour Town in that its fairways are extremely easy to hit. This tends to give the big hitters a little more leeway off the tee and it’s helped players like Bubba Watson and Dustin Johnson find success at River Highlands in the past. The poa greens are also noteworthy as they tend to be a surface we see only on the west coast. West Coast specialists like Dustin Johnson and Chez Reavie (among others) have found this course appealing for that reason alone and taking a look at who tends to putt well on poa is a good idea if you are diving into some recent form stats.
In general, Strokes Gained: Approach and Strokes Gained: Putting stats have been the most important metrics to target here. Of the past five winners at TPC River Highlands, only two (Spieth 2017 and English 2021) have failed to gain over 5.0 strokes on approach in the week of their win. This venue is extremely short by TOUR standards, so good proximity stats from 150 yards and in, should also be essential to success.
The PGA TOUR did attempt to make the course play slightly tougher by modifying four or five of the tee boxes this season and growing out some of the rough. It’s hard to say how much of a difference that will make but certainly if the course does play tougher off the tee that will benefit the better off-the-tee players and potentially also make around the green play a somewhat more important stat — as fewer fairways being hit tends to equal fewer greens being hit.
Ultimately, anyone who is hitting it well and can find the speed of the greens should be able to find success at River Highlands. It’s a relatively simple course that has produced a big spectrum of champions. However, when you’re looking further down the field it’s the players who have tended to excel when the PGA heads to short, technical courses like Waialae Country Club (Sony Open), Port Royal (Bermuda), and Pebble Beach that are most likely to find River Highlands appealing. They’ll be the ones who will be prime value targets and most likely to produce a ceiling performance.
2024 Weather Outlook: Rainy weather made this course extremely easy for the pros last season. The good news for the PGA TOUR this year is that the hot weather should keep the course relatively dry. There is a little bit of potential for the odd thunderstorm to hit this venue but the wind and hot weather should stop the scoring from reaching the comedic heights (or lows, scoring-wise) of last season. The wind isn’t supposed to pick until the weekend but Thursday afternoon does have some gusts that may get into the 10-15mph range so keep an eye on that as the week unfolds. Eyeing an early Thursday / late Friday tee time stack may be key this week for classic DFS lineups. Additionally, if you’re making one-day lineups early starters on Saturday and Sunday may have an advantage with heavier winds expected in the afternoon on the weekend.
Last 5 winners
2023—Keegan Bradley -23 (over Brian Harman and Zac Blair -10)
2022—Xander Schauffele -19 (over Sahith Theegala -18)
2021 — Harris English -13 (over Kramer Hickok playoff)
2020 — Dustin Johnson -19 (over Kevin Streelman -18)
2019 — Chez Reavie -17 (over Keegan Bradley and Zack Sucher -13)
Winning Trends
- Nine of the last 10 winners of this event had posted at least a T31 at TPC River Highlands prior to winning.
- In 3 of the last 4 seasons that the Travelers Championship has been played directly after the US Open (‘23, ‘22, ‘21, + ‘19) the winner at TPC River Highlands had finished T14 or better at the US Open AND gained over 8.0 strokes TOTAL at the US Open.
- The last five winners (not including the 2020 Covid season) had all posted a top-five finish in the first three months of the season, in the same year that they won this event.
Winners Stats and Course Overview
2023 Winner: Keegan Bradley (23-under par)
2023 lead-in form (MC-T30-T29-T35-T38)
SG: OTT—+0.7
SG: APP—+7.3
SG: TTG—+8.7
SG: ATG—+0.7
SG: PUTT—+7.0
- Dustin Johnson used a pretty familiar formula in 2020 when he won. He didn’t do anything impressive off the tee (and actually had a poor driving week for him) but ranked sixth in SG: Approach for the week and fourth in SG: Putting. This was extremely similar to the numbers that Keegan Bradley produced in his win last season.
- 2019 Champion Chez Reavie may be a shorter hitter than both of those players but he used a similar formula as he ranked first on approach and was top 10 in SG: Putting.
- Harris English was even more putter-reliant in 2021, gaining over 4.0 strokes putting for the week and also 2.9 strokes around the green. English was steady with his ball-striking but it was his performance with the scoring clubs that made the difference
- Unlike last week, TPC River Highlands has easy-to-hit fairways and a lot of softer par 4s, which makes this a less-than-driver venue — and one where we don’t need to emphasize off-the-tee play. Efficiency and proximity with mid-to-short irons will be crucial.
Finding Values (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Odds to win are one factor to think about when picking players (but not the only thing, so be careful putting too much weight on them). This section is going to detail a few of the players who have the best fantasy value compared to their DraftKings Sportsbook odds of winning this week.
Russell Henley +3500 and $8,600
Comparables:
Si Woo Kim +4500 and $7,500
Comparables:
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
HORSES FOR COURSES
1. Brian Harman ($8,300; best finishes: T5-2021, T2-2023): Harman has found himself in contention or close to the top of the leaderboard at the Travelers on numerous occasions, including last year when he finished T2. The lefty has posted four top-10 finishes at TPC River Highlands over the last five seasons and leads this field in strokes gained total stats over that period.
2. Keegan Bradley ($8,700; best finishes: T2-2019, win-2023): The native New Englander loved this event and was able to grab the title in front of friends and family last season. He also finished T2 here in 2019. Bradley’s form isn’t the greatest but the course does give him a big boost this week.
3. Patrick Cantlay ($9,600; best finishes: T11-2021, T13-2020): Cantlay showed up to this event as a rookie in 2011 and shot a 60, launching him into contention that season. He also shot a 61 at this event last season in Round 3. He’s now played TPC River Highlands each of the past five years and finished T15 or better in all of those starts.
4. Jason Day ($7,400; best finishes: T8-2019, T12-2018): Since 2018 Day has finished T12 or better on three occasions at this venue and is a solid bounce-back candidate after a poor US Open. At this stage in his career, these shorter venues seem better suited for his game and still lethal putting upside.
5. Russell Henley ($8,600; best finishes: T6-2018, T11-2016): Henley’s form has been up and down at this course but he found his way into the final group at River Highlands back in 2018 and sets up well for this smaller venue. His last two appearances have produced top 20 finishes making him a good floor target this week for cash games.
RECENT FORM
1. Rory McIlroy ($10,900; 2nd-T15): McIlroy gained 7.0 strokes off the tee last week and a season-high 4.9 strokes ATG, but it wasn’t enough for the win. He’ll look to rebound this week in Hartford at a course he called “obsolete” last season.
2. Xander Schauffele ($11,200; T7-T8): Schauffele looked like he might challenge for the win at some point last week but ultimately settled for a top 10. He has seven top 10s now in his last eight starts.
3. Collin Morikawa ($9,800; T14-2nd): Morikawa missed hitting his third straight top 10 at a major but still managed a decent week. He’s gained over 3.0 strokes putting in each of his last two starts.
4. Corey Conners ($8,400; T9-T20): Conners continues to showcase high-end iron play. He’s gained strokes on approach in every event going back to February now and comes in with top-five finishers in two of his last three starts.
5. Tony Finau ($8,900; T3-T8): Finau followed up a solid effort at the Memorial with a memorable week at Pinehurst. He’s now finished in the top 20 in four straight starts and looks primed to have a good end to the year.
DRAFTKINGS DFS STRATEGY
Cash Games: Matsuyama makes sense
It’s hard to put trust and Hideki Matsuyama ($9,200) in the same sentence, just due to his injury history, but he certainly seems healthy and played great last week at the tougher Pinehurst, notching a 6th pace finish. His price still seems super affordable for the upside he brings and much like past Travelers winner Bubba Watson, Matsuyama has also found success at Riviera, recently, making him an intriguing target this week for DFS and betting. Below Matsuyama, it’s hard not to like the price on the suddenly surging Tom Kim ($8,100) who seems to be gaining in confidence with his ball-striking every week. The steady Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($7,400) stands out as another potential value target for this format.
Tournaments: Thomas may be worth trusting
Justin Thomas ($8,500) looked lost last week on his way to a terrible missed cut but a bigger-picture approach is warranted. The American finished T8 in a major just last month and certainly the straightforward nature of this course, and solid fan support, will likely have Thomas in a better mood. He’s done well at this venue over his career and gained over 7.0 strokes on approach at River Highlands last season on his way to a T9 finish. Below Thomas, a similar approach may be warranted on Denny McCarthy ($7,500) who is still struggling with his irons but appears to have found more confidence in his short game after finishing T32 last week. McCarthy sets up well for this venue and finished T7 here last season. Other potential GPP targets for big fields include Victor Perez ($6,500) and Emiliano Grillo ($6,300).
MY PICK: Patrick Cantlay ($9,600)
If there were an award for best results for the week directly after a major, certainly Patrick Cantlay would be in the running. Here are his results from his last four PGA starts made the week directly following a major: T3 Heritage (‘24), T4 Travelers (‘23), T3 Heritage (‘23), T13 Travelers (‘22).
He also finished T2 at the FedEx St. Jude last season (his first start after the 2023 Open Championship), was T2 at the Rocket Mortgage in 2022 (his first start after the 2022 Open), and won in his first start after the 2021 PGA Championship (at the Memorial played two weeks after that major).
In short, when the pressure is off and the course eases up a little, Cantlay has proven he’s more than capable of sliding in for a big week and has done so consistently for much of his career. TPC River Highlands also sets up perfectly for the American who is a fantastic wedge player and tended to putt his best when off Bermuda.
He’s still sitting with solid enough +2200 outright odds on the DraftKings Sportsbook, and at $9,600 makes for a solid core target for balanced builds or stars and scrubs lineups.
MY SLEEPER: Thomas Detry ($7,100)
If we do end up seeing a surprise or longshot winner I can’t help but think it might be Thomas Detry who comes out of nowhere to surprise the favorites. The Belgian pro had another solid showing at a major championship last week posting a T14 only a month after he backdoored T4 at the PGA Championship. In some ways, Detry’s US Open was even more impressive as he managed to get himself into contention early on in tough conditions and then held on for a decent week despite a disappointing Saturday.
Detry also improved his ball striking at Pinehurst, gaining an impressive 5.2 strokes on approach, his best result in that metric on the season. He doesn’t have a ton of experience at TPC River Highlands but did play here last season and he’s shown his best results at these shorter venues where scoring is often lower — posting top-five finishes at both the Bermuda Championship and Pebble Beach over the last two years.
At just $7,100 his upside for DFS makes him a superb target for bigger field GPPs and with his outright price still at +11000 on DraftKings Sportsbook he makes for a good outright/top 10 (+750) combo bet for me this week.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
