Cardinals vs. Marlins Bets: How to approach player props from St. Louis-Miami on June 17

Although he ended May on a positive note, Braxton Garrett hasn’t been able to get back on track throughout June. St. Louis doesn’t have the toughest lineup for left-handed pitchers to combat, but there are areas in which the Cardinals can make Garrett’s day difficult.

Similarly, Sonny Gray had a couple rough outings to open June before dicing up Pittsburgh. But even though he’s struggled in some areas, Gray still has a 1.71 FIP and an opponents’ wOBA of .249 through his three June starts.

Here’s a look at more of these starters’ numbers via their individual player pages in the DraftKings Sportsbook Stats Hub:

A number that jumps out from Garrett’s splits is his strikeout rate this month. After opening his season with a K rate just over 21%, he’s down under 20% in June. That doesn’t bode well for his output vs. the Cardinals, who have a 19.8% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this season. On the road, that number dips a smidge to 19.5%, further bolstering my stance on Garrett going under 4.5 strikeouts on Monday (-110).

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As for the hitters in this game, here’s a look at how some of them have performed over their last five games against their hits line for Monday’s matchup via the Consistency Sheets in the DraftKings Sportsbook Stats Hub:

Masyn Winn has one of the higher strikeout rates against left-handed pitching in St. Louis’ lineup at 23.8%. He also has just a .256 average against lefties. However, he’s still managed to put together a .205 ISO and .331 wOBA against lefties this season. Garrett hasn’t been able to punch out righties as much as lefties this season (19.2% K rate vs. 24.2%), and they only have a 1.92% walk rate against him. Winn is going to get his chances to go over 1.5 total bases, so I like him a lot at +125 to do so.

Now, a prop I don’t often play is a hitter’s strikeouts play. Yet, Tim Anderson makes for an interesting case on Monday. He’s got some longer odds to go over 1.5 strikeouts at +215. Gray is a familiar opponent for the shortstop, with both having spent time in the AL Central. That does play into Anderson’s hand, but this season’s numbers don’t bode well for him. Gray has a 35.1% strikeout rate against righty bats this season. Anderson has a 29.3% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. They may only see each other twice, but with the way Gray is throwing and Anderson is striking out, the over feels much more in play than the odds indicate.

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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.

The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.