Two months of Major League Baseball are in the books. It’s time to attack the sportsbooks. Let’s look at some of the best bets for the Saturday, June 15 MLB betting card.
Here are my favorite DraftKings Sportsbook picks for Saturday’s slate of MLB games.
Follow along on Twitter (@Race4thePrize) for updates.
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New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox
The Pick: Yankees -1.5 (-108)
The Red Sox will look for revenge on Saturday night after Friday night’s beatdown in Boston. It was a tough night for the city. The Yankees beat the Red Sox 8-1 and the Celtics lost Game 4 of the NBA Finals in humiliating fashion (122-84). Boston might be ready to bounce back, but the baby might get bounced on her head again.
Carlos Rodon checks every box. He’s 9-2 with a 2.93 ERA. His advanced stats are fine — 4.30 xFIP and 22.8% K-Rate. He’s won seven starts in a row after surrendering six earned runs to the Orioles on May 2. Although he may not be elite, it’s an elite spot. The Yankees offense provides enormous support, while the Red Sox lineup does the opposite. Boston is below average against left-handed pitching. Their Isolated Slugging (ISO) is .123 in the split and they strike out in 29% of their at-bats.
Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers
The Pick: Jeimer Candelario Over 0.5 Home Runs (+500)
The Candy Man can! There are two Candy Mans: Wonka and the horror movie villain. Each can be equally frightening, Add a terrifying third to the list — Jeimer Candelario. The former horrifies children, the latter scares pitchers. The Candy Man is playing Candy Crush in June. His wOBA is .472 since June 1. Most of that is bolstered by his power — .404 ISO (six home runs and three doubles).
Candy has pop and he’s facing a pitcher that gets popped. Bryse Wilson is allowing 2.5 HR/9 and a 41% Hard Contact to left-handed batters (21.2 IP). His strikeout rate is below average (19%). By not missing bats, he gets squared up for a .429 wOBA and 5.31 xFIP in the split. The sugar on the top is the Candy Man’s splits — .279 ISO, .347 wOBA and 121 wRC+ in 164 at-bats vs. RHP. If that’s not sweet enough, Milwaukee is one of baseball’s most hitter-friendly parks.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Colorado Rockies
The Pick: Andrew McCutchen Over 1.5 Hits (+130)
The Run Line is 10.5. The ball is expected to leave the park. Andrew McCutchen and Bryan Reynolds provided the fireworks at the top of the lineup for the Pirates in their 5-2 win on Friday night. McCutchen (+300 to homer on Saturday) and Reynolds (+425 to HR) each hit their ninth home run of the season last night. That’s not a lot but it’s respectable. Can we expect back-to-back homer nights from modest sluggers?
The law of averages suggests no. The ballpark suggests yes — and throw out your laws at Coors Field. Besides the thin Colorado air, Ty Blach is taking the mound. The southpaw is allowing a .401 wOBA to right-handed batters. McCutchen has a .177 ISO, .345 wOBA and 123 wRC+ in 75 at-bats vs. LHP and Reynolds has a .182 ISO, .344 wOBA and 123 wRC+ in 95 ABs. Blach has been better at home. His ERA is 3.86 as opposed to 7.50 on the road. The 7.50 ERA may be the more accurate representation of his talent. In his home starts, Blach has only struck out 10.3% of batters. How is he surviving in Coors? That is a dangerous game. A game McCutcheon is willing to play at the top of the order.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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