A really, really good slate of games is on tap for Friday night. I’ll give you some of my favorite plays you can tail on DraftKings Sportsbook
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Cleveland Guardians at Toronto Blue Jays
The Pick: Guardians team total over 3.5 runs -125
The Guardians are going up against Kevin Gausman in Toronto tonight. I think this is a tough spot for Gausman, who’ll be facing a LOT of lefties in this lineup. That has been a real sore spot for him this season, as they’ve tagged him with a .353 wOBA overall and specifically a .473 wOBA at home, where this start will take place. Gausman has been reeling at home and has a massive 6.68 ERA through 31 innings of work. The Guardians can really load up on lefties and tonight’s projected lineup has seven of them (two of them being switch-hitters). Even if the Guardians don’t get all four runs off of Gausman, the Jays bullpen continues to be a weak spot for this team as well. Over the last week, the bullpen has combined to throw 15.1 innings and has a 5.28 ERA. Give me the Guardians to go over that team total at a reasonable -125.
Oakland Athletics at Minnesota Twins
The Pick: Total runs under 4.5 through first five innings +100
I’m not thinking we’re getting a lot of offense early in this game between the A’s and Twins. Mitch Spence will be taking on Simeon Woods Richardson. Starting with Spence, he recently moved into the rotation after logging innings as a long reliever out of the bullpen. Since becoming a starter, he’s gone 26 innings and has a 3.12 ERA with a 2.97 FIP, a .285 wOBA. He essentially throws two pitches, a cutter and a slider. These are pitches the Twins have not handled well, posting a combined .237 wOBA against the cutter and .310 against the slider. These have worked extremely well for him and should be able to silence the Twins bats.
For Woods Richardson, he’s been very tough to both righties and lefties, posting a sub .267 wOBA against both of them. Overall, the A’s aren’t hitting righties, as tonight’s expected lineup has a combined .2997 wOBA with a 26% K%. Woods Richardson has been almost as good as advertised, as his 2.84 ERA is accompanied by a 3.44 xERA. With the A’s struggle offensively and the Twins not hitting the main pitches of Spence, I’m liking the under through the first five innings.
Chicago White Sox at Arizona Diamondbacks
The Pick: Luis Robert over 1.5 bases +100
I’ve had a lot of bets involving the White Sox but usually it’s AGAINST them. Tonight, I’m looking to bet a White Sox player to go over his total bases, and that’s Luis Robert. Hopefully not a White Sox for much longer, he’s been their best hitter when on the field. He’ll face Ryne Nelson, who throws a lot of fastballs. He’s doing so 51% of the time and that is a pitch that Robert crushes. Dating back to last season, Robert has a .455 wOBA with a .414 ISO against that pitch, which is absurd. You would think Nelson would consider not throwing this pitch as much, as opposing hitters have a .309 BA with a .381 wOBA against it. But, until that happens, I’ll continue to target good fastball hitters against him.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.
