The Boston Celtics are one win away from clinching the franchise’s 18th title, and will attempt to close out the 2024 NBA Finals Friday evening against the Dallas Mavericks in Game 4. The Mavericks have had their chances in the last two games to get on the scoreboard in the series, but failed to make key plays down the stretch while the Celtics maintained their impressive efficiency to pull out wins. No team has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit in the NBA playoffs, so this is now just a matter of when Boston wins rather than if Boston wins.
Luka Doncic, who fouled out in the fourth quarter of Game 3, continues to deal with a knee issue. He’s probable. Kristaps Porzingis missed Game 3 with a leg/foot injury and is officially being listed as questionable but he’s in line to not play again this series. Boston maintains he’s day-to-day.
The Mavericks are 1-point favorites according to DraftKings Sportsbook with the total sitting at 211.5. Dallas and Boston are both priced at -110 on the moneyline.
Celtics vs. Mavericks, 8:30 p.m. ET
Pick ATS: Celtics -1
I put too much faith in the Mavericks over the first three games, largely because Doncic and Kyrie Irving have been tremendous in clutch situations all season. Dallas was able to pull out close wins time and time again thanks to its star guards but it’s been tough sledding against Boston’s defense. Doncic was a lone ranger in the first two games and Irving exploded in Game 3 but the Mavericks haven’t been able to get anything from the supporting cast. Dallas’ defense has also faltered in key moments, and the Celtics have managed to find great shots even if their triples aren’t falling.
This is essentially a pick ‘em. The Mavericks might show some desperation in front of their home fans, and there’s a chance Boston has a letdown with the potential to win the Finals back at home in Game 5 but I think the Celtics don’t falter here. They’ve had their eyes on the prize for a while now and they finish the job Friday.
Over/Under: Under 211.5
All three games in this series have gone under their totals, thanks to Boston’s defense stifling Dallas’ supporting cast. Doncic and Irving have done tremendous work in an attempt to get back in the series, but they continue to keep things slow. The Celtics haven’t been able to hit a barrage of triples yet, so there’s always the chance that happens tonight. I’ll go with the trend and take the under in Game 4, even as the total remains low.