Phillies vs. Red Sox Bets: How to approach player props from Philadelphia-Boston on June 13

Aaron Nola vs. Tanner Houck. Doesn’t get much better than that these days if you’re a fan of pitchers’ duels.

Houck has the better numbers, but he’s battling a much tougher lineup. The right-hander enters this game with an ERA under 2.00, a 2.22 FIP and a 25% strikeout rate. He’s been a little better on the road than at home, but opponents still have just a .583 OPS and .242 wOBA against him at Fenway.

Nola is in a spot to go off, but there are some interesting numbers to note about the right-hander. He’s got an ERA under 3.00 but a 3.82 FIP, which indicates he’s due for some regression. That said, when looking at his home/road splits via his individual player page in the DraftKings Sportsbook Stats Hub, it appears more likely regression will come in Philly and not on the road:

A market I haven’t gone shopped in much this season is walks allowed. But, Houck jumped out at 1.5 with his odds to the over set at -105. He’s gone over this number in 5 of 13 starts, so not a high rate. However, across those other eight outings, there are three starts in which he’s logged a single walk.

There are some elements at play that could cause him to just go over the edge on this play.

Houck has a very solid 4.4% walk rate. Looking at his handedness splits, he has a 5.35% walk rate against lefties. Still a good number, but there’s still a clear difference between how he does against lefties vs. righties (3.36%). Then you look at Philadelphia’s top three lefty bats — Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper and Bryson Stott — and each of their walk rates against right-handed pitching ranges between 12.5% and 16.3%.

As for Nola, I love seeing plus-money odds (+115) for him to go over 18.5 outs recorded. Boston has some reasonable pop at home against right-handed pitching (.157 ISO), but they also have a 25.5% strikeout rate. They also have just a .307 OBP against righties at Fenway.

The Red Sox are capable of doing damage, but it depends on the day. Expecting them to force Nola out of the game before recording his 19th out is a big ask. After all, the Philly right-hander has logged at least 19 outs in seven of his last 10 starts.

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As for the hitters in this game, here’s a look at how some of them have performed over their last five games against their hits line for Thursday’s matchup via the Consistency Sheets in the DraftKings Sportsbook Stats Hub:

With Houck also only having a 19.8% strikeout rate against left-handed hitting, Schwarber (+105), Harper (-120) and Stott (+105) are all interesting cases to go over 1.5 total bases. Although Schwarber has more pop and Harper is the best bat of the bunch, Stott is actually the hitter I’m rolling with above all others on either side. He’s logged a pair of extra-base hits already this series, and he’s got a .193 ISO against right-handed pitching on the road. Plus, of the trio, he’s got the lowest strikeout rate against righties (14.6%).

As for the Red Sox, Enmanuel Valdez and Jaren Duran jump out. Nola has an 18.8% strikeout rate against left-handed hitting, as well as a 4.80 FIP. Duran is hitting .330 with a .277 ISO against right-handed pitching at Fenway. Valdez has both a .313 ISO and average in the same setting. Valdez is +150 to log at least two total bases while Duran is -120 to do the same. Duran has been hot this month, but I’d rather chase the odds with Valdez after he hit a double on Wednesday.

Same Game Parlaying Stott and Valdez to each log at least two total bases provides +360 odds. Pairing them to each log a hit provides +108 odds.

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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.

The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.