Only seven games on the schedule tonight starting at 6:50 p.m. ET. I’ll give a couple of bets I like tonight on DraftKings Sportsbook that you can tail.
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Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox
The Pick: Total runs under 4.5 runs through first five innings -125
We have a really strong pitching matchup set at Fenway Park tonight. Aaron Nola takes the bump for the Phillies, opposing the Red Sox ace Tanner Houck. Let’s go over the matchup and why I like the under through the first five innings. Nola has been so good on the road this season. Through 34.2 innings, Nola has a dazzling 1.82 ERA with a .231 wOBA and a 3.41 FIP. He’s been tough against both sides of the plate and induing groudballs at a strong 45% rate. Throwing a curve as his main pitch, Nola is expected to face a lineup that has a combined .303 wOBA since last season against that pitch.
Houck is very much in the running for a Cy Young award. At 12-1 odds, he’s currently third on the board, trailing only Tarik Skubal and Corbin Burnes. The numbers back it up, as he owns a 1.91 ERA with an xERA of 3.24, an 8.9 K/9 and a 2.22 FIP. neither side of the plate is hitting him hard, as lefties have a .224 wOBA and righties a .237 wOBA. With both of these pitchers throwing as well as they are, I’m looking toward that under through the first five innings.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Texas Rangers
The Pick: Mookie Betts over 1.5 bases +105
Michael Lorenzen is taking the mound for the Rangers tonight and comes with his really, really bad numbers against righties. He has an absurd .420 wOBA with a 6.76 FIP and all seven home runs he’s allowed against right-handed bats. So when I see Betts at plus money to go over 1.5 bases, I’m in on that. This is something he’s done in nearly half the games played, doing it 32 times in 68 games, good for 47%. Now, when you consider how badly Lorenzen has been against righties, Betts at 1.5 at +105 in the leadoff spot is very attractive. Lorenzen throws four pitches almost evenly between a sinker, fastball, changeup and cutter. Against all of them, Betts has at LEAST a .368 wOBA against those pitches.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.
