I can already tell this is going to be an odd slate. When you open up the contest page to see an opener listed at $9.4K, it really sets a certain mood. Still, with no rain in the forecast, everything beyond asset pricing seems straightforward.
Let’s dive into these six games and find some studs and values.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $150K Relay Throw [$50K to 1st]
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PITCHER
Stud
Garrett Crochet, Chicago White Sox at Seattle Mariners, $9,400 – There’s a lot of quality pitching options at the top of this slate, but I can’t ignore Crochet. The left-hander’s surface stats might appear relatively normal, yet Crochet enters play on Thursday leading the league in xERA (2.31) and sitting second in strikeout rate (34.3%). Look, the man has a winning record while pitching for the 2024 White Sox. That’s a herculean feat. Meanwhile, Seattle continues to own baseball’s highest strikeout rate (27.2%), setting up Crochet for a ceiling performance this evening.
Value
Brandon Pfaadt, Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Angels, $7,400 – Pfaadt’s been getting pretty unlucky in 2024. How unlucky? Well, his 61.0% strand rate is the second-lowest qualified mark in all of baseball. That’s why Pfaadt’s ERA is 4.60, but he’s also in possession of a 3.06 xERA and a a 3.52 FIP. A matchup with the Angels should help get the sophomore back on track. While Los Angeles has crushed left-handed pitching this season to the tune of a 115 wRC+, that figure falls to a 91 wRC+ against RHPs.
INFIELD
Stud
Mookie Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Texas Rangers, $6,100 – Let’s start with the matchup. Michael Lorenzen ($7,000) has some of the most pronounced reverse-splits I’ve ever seen. In his 59.0 innings in 2024, opposing RHBs are slashing .318/.400/.573 with a massive .420 wOBA. Betts may be in the midst of a mini-slump to begin June, but Lorenzen is the exact type of pitcher capable of ending that cold streak. Overall, Betts remains in possession of an eye-popping 164 wRC+.
Stud
Royce Lewis, Minnesota Twins vs. Oakland Athletics, $6,000 – Lewis just can’t stop hitting home runs. The former first-overall pick has played eight games since returning from a lengthy IL stint and he’s already gone deep four times. In his 33 plate appearances for the season as a whole, Lewis is hitting .367 with a 261 wRC+. Not too shabby. Tonight, he and the rest of the Twins will face Luis Medina ($5,500). For his career, Medina is surrendering 1.45 home runs per nine to opposing RHBs.
Value
Jeff McNeil, New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins, $3,300 – Obviously, McNeil is an inexpensive component of what should be a larger Mets stack. It’s been a rough season for the veteran infielder, yet his left-handed bat could come in handy in a matchup with Roddery Munoz ($6,300). The sample size is just four starts, but Munoz has been demolished by opposing LHBs at the MLB level, with the 40 he’s faced combining for six home runs and an insane .912 slugging percentage. It’s not like Munoz was much better at Triple-A, either.
OUTFIELD
Stud
Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Angels, $4,500 – Things have not gone to plan for Carroll in his sophomore campaign, but he’s starting to see a light at the end of the tunnel. In 46 plate appearances in June, Carroll is slashing .300/.391/.400 with a 131 wRC+ and a pair of stolen bases. You’d like to see more power. Frankly, you’d like to see more steals. Still, it’s the first good stretch we’ve seen from the 23-year-old in 2024. On Thursday, he’ll be opposed by Griffin Canning ($5,000). Canning has surrendered 2.23 home runs per nine to LHBs this season. Joc Pederson ($4,400) is another name to remember in this spot.
Value
Brandon Nimmo, New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins, $4,500 – No qualified player on the Mets owns a higher expected wOBA against right-handed pitching than Nimmo (.376). In fact, despite hitting just .217, Nimmo is 90th percentile in expected wOBA (.373) in all of baseball. He’s also 88th percentile in average exit velocity (92.0) and 77th percentile in barrel rate (11.3%). He’s capable of doing a lot of damage — especially in a matchup with the aforementioned Munoz.
Value
DJ Stewart, New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins, $3,200 – Another Mets outfielder with better advanced statistics than real ones. Stewart should be hitting in the heart of New York’s lineup tonight with a right-hander on the mound. Against RHPs this season, Stewart owns a 119 wRC+. That’s solid on it’s own, yet it’s the combination of matchup that really makes the 30-year-old viable. Munoz is currently conceding 6.75 home runs per nine to LHBs. That number seems fake its so poor.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $150K Relay Throw [$50K to 1st]
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
