The Celtics took the first two games of the NBA Finals in Boston, protecting their home court with a blowout victory in Game 1, followed by an ugly Game 2 win. Now the scene shifts to Dallas, where we’ll see if the Mavericks are able to get a win in a game that history suggests is absolutely necessary to their chances to win it all — no team has ever comeback from a 0-3 deficit to win a series in the NBA. Here’s what stands out on DraftKings Sportsbook for betting Game 3 of the series.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Bet at a top rated Sportsbook!
View the latest odds and bet online legally at a top rated Sportsbook! Place a bet now at DraftKings Sportsbook!*
*Odds and lines are for illustrative purposes only.
Celtics +2.5 (-110) — 2-units
While you may think trends indicate that this is a spot to back the Mavericks, they are actually a much stronger play in the first quarter or half of this game based on the stats. Teams down 0-2 in the NBA that are a home favorite in Game 3 are profitable on both 1Q/1H, but have a negative ROI when betting them for the full game. The narrative that this is a must-win game is also baked into the number for Dallas here.
The Celtics find themselves in an extremely rare spot — an underdog for the fourth time this season in their 99th game. Boston was a dog in Milwaukee in January, but the C’s were on the second night of a back-to-back, defeating Minnesota in OT the night before. Boston was also an underdog in its second trip to Milwaukee, but the Bucks were still battling for seeding, while the Celts had already wrapped up the top-seed in the NBA. Predictably, the C’s lost both those games. The other game as an underdog was in Sacramento, just a night after falling in OT to Golden State. Jayson Tatum suffered an ankle injury in that game and sat out in Sacramento, although Boston still earned a blowout victory.
Long story short, this is the first time the Celtics have been underdogs this season while on an even playing field. I think it’s an over-adjustment.
Boston has been a tremendous road team for quite some time now in the postseason. The Celtics are 6-0 on the road this postseason, and have won eight in a row on the road overall in the playoffs. Going back even further, Boston is 20-7 in its last 27 playoff games away from TD Garden.
With or without Kristaps Porzingis in any form, I do feel the Celtics figure this one out.
Mavericks 1Q -1.5 (-108) — 1-unit
I don’t do this often, but I’m going to get cute in this game. Not only do historical trends say the Mavericks should start Game 3 strong, so do their own trends this postseason. Dallas is 11-8 1Q ATS, but a perfect 6-0 1Q ATS off a loss on this playoff run. That includes Game 2 of this series, in which Dallas led after the first quarter as an underdog in Boston.
If we want to take it back to Game 1, the Mavs were playing the Celtics even for the first 5-6 minutes of the game until Porzingis came in a blew the game open (something most of us don’t see happening in Game 3). While I think the Celtics prevail over the course of the game, I’ll buy into the desperation spot to begin Game 3 at home to a degree.
We also have to consider the status of Luka Doncic — who is receiving pain-relief shots before the games. He went for 13 points in the first quarter of Game 2, but noticeably wore down as the game went on. Even more reason to narrow down how we back Dallas to early in the game when Doncic will be at his best.
1st Quarter Mavericks/Celtics ML (+450) — 0.25-units
If I’m going to go with a bold take on the game, might as well sprinkle on that game script given the massive price tag. Mavs to lead after the first quarter, but ultimately lose the game is an attractive +450.
Jayson Tatum 30+ Points (+140) — 0.75-units
Tatum has acknowledged that while he feels he is able to contribute to the game in many ways, he has to be a more efficient scorer on this stage. This is his chance to back up his words.
Through two games of the series, Tatum is 12-for-38 from the field, shooting just 31.6% from the field and averaging 17 points. At some point that should change, and Tatum generally has his breakout scoring games in the postseason on the road.
We can think back to several occasions that Tatum has carried the scoring load away from home over the past few postseasons (most notably 46 points in Game 6 in Milwaukee in 2022). The numbers back it up with 2.2 more points per game in road playoff games.
Tatum is playing within the team so far in this series, and playing within the team will require more scoring on the road. Of course, the shots have to actually go down, but they have on the road. JT’s last four road games this postseason have result in 33, 33, 36 and 26 points. I’m expecting similar results in Game 3.
If Porzingis winds up ruled out or playing extremely limited minutes, it also might be worth backing Tatum on his first quarter point prop as JT could be in line for 11-12 minutes.
Place your NBA bets at DraftKings Sportsbook or by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.
Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
