It had been a slow start to June on article plays, but we got back in the black on Monday. A 2-0 night pushes our record for the season to 26-15 (+10.3u). Just remember: When in doubt, bet on the Blue Jays to not score runs. It works every time.*
*It does not work every time
Let’s dive into Wednesday’s slate on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Cleveland Guardians at Cincinnati Reds
Guardians ML (-105)
Let’s break down the battle of Ohio, shall we? I want to get this out of the way right off the top: This is not a bet that’s targeting Nick Lodolo. The Reds’ LHP has looked incredible so far this season and his ERA estimators all back up his performance. However, I think Tanner Bibee has been just as good in recent weeks and that the Guardians are simply the superior team. Cleveland is 13-8 as an underdog in 2024. Its 61.9% winning percentage within the split ranking as the third-best mark in all of baseball. Again, the Guardians are fantastic.
Bibee didn’t start the season overly well, but his last five starts have been a distinct improvement. Across 29.2 innings of work, Bibee has maintained a 2.12 ERA and a 2.67 FIP with a 26.7% strikeout rate. As is often the case, the difference for the RHP has been velocity. Bibee’s fastball, on average, was sitting below 94.0 mph in his first three outings of 2024. Here’s his average fastball velocity from his last five appearances: 94.9, 96.0, 94.8, 95.5 and 94.9. Don’t kid yourself. Velocity remains king in modern baseball.
Pitching isn’t the primary reason Cleveland is leading the AL Central, though. In a surprising twist, it’s been the lineup. Overall, the Guardians’ 108 wRC+ is the eighth-highest mark in MLB entering play on Wednesday, and the team has been even more successful hitting southpaws. To wit, Cleveland boasts a .177 ISO and a 117 wRC+ against left-handers. This isn’t going to be a walk in the park for Lodolo.
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Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals
Under 8 (-102)
I’ve been loving unders lately. It makes sense. Run production is down across the league. Batting average is down. Barrelled batted ball events aren’t travelling as far as they used to. It’s a lot to keep track of. However, we don’t need to be so macro when it comes to this particular tilt between the Pirates and the Cardinals. Simply put, this is a matchup between two clubs that rank in the bottom-half of the league in wRC+ and the bottom-third of the league in ISO. Neither is especially adept at lighting up the scoreboard.
The presence of Sonny Gray is also massive. I would say the veteran has picked up right where he left off the last two seasons, but the truth of the matter is Gray has actually been better in 2024. His 3.21 ERA is slightly higher than in 2023 and 2022, yet his 32.8% strikeout rate is a career-high and his 2.79 SIERA is the sixth-lowest mark of any pitcher who has thrown at least 50 innings. He’s been dominant in St. Louis, too. Gray’s made six starts at Busch Stadium and he’s posted a 1.60 ERA while holding opponents to a .201 wOBA.
Bailey Falter is not Sonny Gray. He doesn’t have the track record and his ERA estimators loathe him. Still, Falter has maintained a 3.69 ERA over 68.1 innings in 2024. He’s also left-handed. That’s very important to note, as the Cardinals have struggled immensely with LHPs this season. St. Louis’ 79 wRC+ within the split is tied for the second-lowest mark in MLB.
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