One important thing to note before digging into specific systems: The Systems tool in the DraftKings Stats Hub now allows you to filter systems by team and not solely by grading. Here’s what the different views looks like:
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SYSTEM: Road underdog on the Run Line following a loss
This system has been a strong one since Opening Day, and there’s even been a slight uptick of late. Underdogs are 216-139 (60.85%) on the run line in this setting this season. Over the last 30 days, the play has hit 61.97% of the time. In the last seven, it has a success rate over 62%.
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Four games fit this system on Tuesday:
- MIA @ NYM
- COL @ MIN
- CWS @ SEA
- OAK @ SD
National League teams playing as underdogs in this setting against the American League are 33-15 on the run line (68.8%). That elevates the Rockies, who are specifically 3-2 on the run line when this system is in play against an AL team.
Cal Quantrill is set to start for Colorado. He’s somehow maintained an ERA under four both on the road and at Coors. However, his 3.48 road ERA is the superior of the two, despite hitters posting a higher BABIP (.292 vs. .244) against Quantrill on the road and a lower strikeout rate (18% vs. 16.1%).
Minnesota will combat him with Louie Varland. While Colorado’s offense isn’t overwhelming away from Coors, Varland struggled mightily during his four start stint in the spring. He only logged 16 2/3 innings across those four outings and gave up six home runs while posting a 9.18 ERA and 7.65 FIP.
SYSTEM PICK FOR JUNE 11
COL +1.5 (-122)
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SYSTEM: NRFI home underdogs after not playing the previous day
Took a little bit for this system to take off, but it’s been running wild for some time. It’s only been in play 67 times, which is plenty when looking at sample size — this just isn’t a system you see in play at a high frequency.
In those 67 games, NRFI has hit 43 times (64.18%). Technically, that means this play has been down slightly over the last 30 days (27 games) since it’s hitting at a 62.96% success rate during that span, but that’s still a high-quality rate.
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Three games fit this system on Tuesday:
- CIN vs. CLE
- BOS vs. PHI
- STL vs. PIT
Both the Cardinals and Reds are 2-0 when they’re playing as a dog while this system is in play.
With Paul Skenes on the mound, I’m going to play STL-PIT over CIN-CLE. The rookie phenom has lived up to the hype, posting a 3.00 ERA and 3.03 FIP while striking out 38 over 27 innings. Looking at the first four hitters he’ll likely face to open the game, Paul Goldschmidt has a 30.5% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching at home and just a .154 ISO. Meanwhile, the best ISO against righties at Busch between Nolan Arenado, Alec Burleson and Masyn Winn is .106 (Burleson).
Miles Mikolas is more of the question mark in this matchup. Even still, he’s held opponents scoreless in the opening frame in each of his last four starts. Pittsburgh’s first three hitters have on-base percentages over .330 against righties on the road. Andrew McCutchen has the highest ISO of that group in this setting at .161. Batting fourth, Oneil Cruz has just a .287 OBP and .145 ISO against righties on the road.
SYSTEM PICK FOR JUNE 11
STL-PIT NRFI -141
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
