Whenever the groups get released for major competitions like the Euro, there’s always a conversation about what the “Group of Death” is. There are plenty of groups that can stake their claim to that title but Group D might rise above them. 2018 World Cup champions and 2022 World Cup runners-up France stand tall but Netherlands, Poland and Austria are no pushovers with all having a history of success on the pitch. With only potentially three spots in the knockout round up for grabs, it’s going to be a true fight to the finish. Here’s a breakdown of Group D, along with our predictions for how things will play out. All odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
France (-200 to win group, -1600 to qualify for knockout round)
The Didier Deschamps era has been excellent for France, although the last Euro tournament exit was a huge surprise. Losing in a penalty shootout in the round of 16 to Switzerland, especially after having a lead in that game, was a failure for France in every sense of the word. France did return to the World Cup final in 2022 and in the last four major international tournaments, it has been in the final three times. There’s an expectation of winning under Deschamps and there’s an undertone of redemption after the disappointment in the summer of 2021.
The big surprise is goalkeeper Hugo Lloris not being in the squad despite his experience. France are still bringing most of the 2022 World Cup squad, headlined by captain Kylian Mbappe, Antoine Griezmann, Benjamin Pavard and Olivier Giroud. Youngsters Eduardo Camavinga, Aurelien Tchouameni and Ibrahim Konate will also have a part to play for one of the top contenders to lift the 2024 trophy.
Netherlands (+275 to win group, -400 to qualify for knockout round)
Frenkie de Jong withdrawing from the squad was a big blow for the Dutch, who haven’t quite been able to replicate their 2010 run to the World Cup final at major tournaments. They had a particularly poor run in subsequent Euros, bowing out in the group stage in 2012 and failing to qualify in 2016. Netherlands also didn’t qualify for the 2018 World Cup but has since bounced back with appearances at Euro 2021 and the 2022 World Cup. Quarterfinal exits in both tournaments isn’t ideal but it’s better than where Netherlands had been after 2010.
Virgil van Dijk, Denzel Dumfries, Daley Blind and Matthjis de Ligt form one of the best back lines in the competition, although goalkeeper might be a concern with not much experience. Memphis Depay, Cody Gakpo and Steven Bergwijn will have to spearhead an attack that has explosiveness but remains inconsistent.
Austria (+800 to win group, -135 to qualify for knockout round)
The World Cup remains elusive for Austria but a consistent presence at the European Championship bodes well for the country when it comes to returning to prominence on the pitch. There aren’t a lot of big-time names in this squad but Austria did play defending champions Italy to extra time in the round of 16 at the last Euro.
David Alaba being out of the squad is a big miss for Austria. The defender missed most of the season for Real Madrid with an ACL injury and will also be out for Euro 2024. Stefan Lainer is also out. It’ll be up to Marcel Sabitzer, Marko Arnautovic and Christoph Baumgartner to carry the less-experienced players in a tough group.
Poland (+1200 to win group, +145 to qualify for knockout round)
It’s important to have experience in a group like this, so Poland is actually in a decent spot to advance in my opinion. Robert Lewandowski, one of the most prolific scorers in the world, headlines this team as the captain. Wojciech Szczesny anchors this team in goal, and there’s been good production from midfielders Piotr Zielinski and Kamil Grosicki. The back line is filled with questions but Lewandowski and Krzysztof Piatek can overcome that with their offensive ability.
Poland bowed out in the group stage at the last Euro and barely qualified from the group stage at the most recent World Cup. This feels like the last opportunity for this generation of Poland’s top players to do something special, like reaching the quarterfinal round of Euro 2016.