Logan Gilbert and Erick Fedde are both having very sound 2024 campaigns. Gilbert has been logging a lot of innings, all while posting a 3.12 ERA and a 3.64 FIP. Fedde has only thrown 9 1/3 fewer innings across the same amount of starts while posting a 3.27 ERA and 3.55 FIP.
Neither offense in this game is particularly potent, either. However, one arm may have a bit more trouble in this contest than the other based on a particular set of splits showcased on Individual Player Splits pages in DraftKings Sportsbook’s Stats Hub:
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Fedde isn’t as effective on the road, which is where he finds himself on Monday. He could still go over his strikeouts line at 5.5 since the Mariners have a 29.4% K rate against righties at home. But there’s better value to chase elsewhere with the odds set at -160.
Be it the road or T-Mobile Park, Gilbert can put in quality work anywhere. However, he is also a bit better at home than on the road. Meanwhile, the White Sox have an MLB-worst ISO (.107) and wOBA (.266) against right-handed pitching on the road. They also have a 25.1% strikeout rate in this setting, which puts the over on Gilbert’s 6.5 strikeouts line in play at -120.
Still, I’m going with Gilbert to go over 18.5 outs recorded above all else on Monday at +110. He’s gone over this mark in 8 of 13 starts, five of which did come in the opening month. But in three of the five starts he’s failed to go over this number, Gilbert has logged an even six innings — with each of those three six-inning outings coming in May. Going up against a lineup like Chicago’s gives him a great chance to have an elite performance.
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*Odds and lines are for illustrative purposes only.
As for the hitters in this game, here’s a look at how some of them have performed over their last five games against their hits line for Monday’s matchup via the Consistency Sheets in the DraftKings Sportsbook Stats Hub:
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Digging deeper into Fedde’s play on the road, righty bats hit for better average (.290 vs. 244) and lefties hit for more power (.449 SLG vs. .420) against him.
That plays into Luke Raley’s hand well. He’s got a .283 average, .267 ISO and .389 wOBA at home against right-handed pitching. He’s +185 to log 2+ total bases, which he’s due for. Raley is 1-for-11 over the last five games, which has brought his season average down from .271 to .258.
On the other side, Gavin Sheets is a quality play to log 2+ total bases with +160 odds. He’s got a tougher matchup than Raley, but Sheets has had a strong start to June, posting a .964 OPS across eight games. Also, he has a .289 average, .205 ISO and .378 wOBA against right-handed pitching on the road.
Same Game Parlaying these two hitters to each log 2+ total bases provides +575 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
