Two months of Major League Baseball are in the books. It’s time to attack the sportsbooks. Let’s look at some of the best bets for the Saturday, June 8 MLB betting card.
Here are my favorite DraftKings Sportsbook picks for Saturday’s slate of MLB games.
Follow along on Twitter (@Race4thePrize) for updates.
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San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
The Pick: Padres -1.5 (+150)
It’s the best day of the week: Knuckleball Day. Matt Waldron takes the mound and carries the mantel as baseball’s last knuckleballer. Not only is he keeping the pitch alive, he’s taking it to a level never seen before. His forefathers heavily relied on the pitch. It was the only pitch in their bag. Waldron’s diverse arsenal includes a knuckleball, four-seem fastball, sweeper, sinker and cutter. He only throws the knuckle 40% of the time. Hitters can’t sit on a pitch. He keeps them guessing. In his last start, Waldron held the Angels scoreless and allowed two hits across 6.1 innings. It is worth noting that Waldron’s worst game was against the Diamondbacks on May 5 (eight runs in three innings), but that was more of a case of the nature of the knuckleball rather than the matchup.
Ryne Nelson had a rough May. It wasn’t a terrible May. He was a borderline quality starter in each of his five starts. Unfortunately for the Diamondbacks, Nelson was always on the wrong side of the border. He pitched 24.2 innings but his ERA was 6.93. The innings are eaten but he’s getting beaten. The reason is Nelson’s low strikeout rate (6.57 K/9). Too much contact and too many walks (2.92 BB/9) will eventually turn into runs throughout a five-inning start.
Cleveland Guardians at Miami Marlins
The Pick: Under 8 (+100)
Put on the tinfoil hat or put on your lab coat. The Guardians‘ offense was anemic in 2023. The team made few offseason changes to their lineup. The Guardians have one of the best offenses in 2024. How did this happen? They made a subtle ballpark change. Shipping containers in rightfield were removed to create an open gathering space. It is theorized that the containers limited airflow. A jetstream now rips through their home park and the ball flies out. The nerds have analyzed the statcast data (Exit Velocity and Launch Angle), and there is a definitive case that the Guardians’ offensive surge is the result of the stadium renovation and not an improved lineup.
Why does this matter? It’s still a tinfoil hat conspiracy. The markets have not fully adjusted. The Guardians will play in the opposite environment on Saturday. The Marlins are not rolling out an ace, but Roddery Munoz has been above average in the first three starts of his career (3.67 xFIP and 10.91 K/9). His last start was shakey. He allowed four home runs, but that was against the Dodgers in Los Angeles. Munoz should be able to keep the ball in the park in Miami against the Guardians.
Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels
The Pick: Hunter Brown Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+125)
A knuckleballer and a conspiracy theory, what’s next? How about a 1-5 pitcher with a 6.18 ERA? This is going to be a fun Saturday. Hunter Brown and the Astros are -160 favorites despite Brown’s ugly surface numbers. Brown’s problem is the long ball (1.79 HR/9). He doesn’t allow a lot of hits and most are groundballs. The truth is — and this is always a dangerous assumption — that Brown has been unlucky. His BABIP is .342 and HR/FB Rate is 21.6%. He can’t control that. He can throw strikes and he does (9.76 K/9 in 55.1 innings).
What could turn Brown’s luck around? A good matchup is what he needs and what he gets on Saturday night. The Angels are one of the worst teams in Major League Baseball against right-handed pitching. They have an 87 wRC+, .293 wOBA, .144 ISO and 23.7% K-Rate vs. right-handed pitching.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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