Clenches fist while checking NBA schedule for the 50th time in the past week
Ohhhhh broooother, what do you mean we STILL have to wait for the 2024 NBA Finals to start? Game 1 between the Dallas Mavericks and Boston Celtics will tip off on Thursday, finally bringing an end to a layover that feels like has lasted an eternity. The league typically earmarks the first Thursday of June to begin its championship series and the long dead period is a byproduct of both teams winning their respective conference finals quickly. While understandable, it’s frustrating when the rhythm of having a playoff game on every night comes to a screeching halt.
Boston in particular will have had a 10-day break before Game 1, getting a lengthy layover after sweeping Indiana in the Eastern Conference Finals. The team’s biggest benefit from the time off will be the return of starting center Kristaps Porzingis, who has been out of action since the first round due to a calf injury. While that’s a net positive for the Celtics, there is also a chance that the team could be rusty and out of sync when the series begins.
Will this long layover help or hurt the Celtics’ chances at hoisting the Larry O’Brien Championship Trophy? Let’s take a look at recent NBA Finals history to see if the time off is a blessing or a curse for Boston. We’ll start at 2003, when the NBA went to a best-of-seven format for all four rounds in the postseason.
NBA Finals layoff days since 2003
| Year | West Champ w/ days off | East Champ w/ days off | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Year | West Champ w/ days off | East Champ w/ days off | Result |
| 2003 | Spurs: 6 days | Nets: 11 days | Spurs in 6 |
| 2004 | Lakers: 6 days | Pistons: 5 days | Pistons in 5 |
| 2005 | Spurs: 8 days | Pistons: 3 days | Pistons in 7 |
| 2006 | Mavericks: 5 days | Heat: 6 days | Heat in 6 |
| 2007 | Spurs: 8 days | Cavaliers: 5 days | Spurs in 4 |
| 2008 | Lakers: 7 days | Celtics: 6 days | Celtics in 6 |
| 2009 | Lakers: 6 days | Magic: 5 days | Lakers in 5 |
| 2010 | Lakers: 5 days | Celtics: 6 days | Lakers in 7 |
| 2011 | Mavericks: 6 days | Heat: 5 days | Mavericks in 6 |
| 2012 | Thunder: 6 days | Heat: 3 days | Heat in 5 |
| 2013 | Spurs: 10 days | Heat: 3 days | Heat in 7 |
| 2014 | Spurs: 5 days | Heat: 6 days | Spurs in 5 |
| 2015 | Warriors: 8 days | Cavaliers: 9 days | Warriors in 6 |
| 2016 | Warriors: 3 days | Cavaliers: 6 days | Cavaliers in 7 |
| 2017 | Warriors: 10 days | Cavaliers: 7 days | Warriors in 5 |
| 2018 | Warriors: 3 days | Cavaliers: 4 days | Warriors in 4 |
| 2019 | Warriors: 10 days | Raptors: 5 days | Raptors in 6 |
| 2020* | Lakers: 4 days | Heat: 3 days | Lakers in 6 |
| 2021* | Suns: 6 days | Bucks: 3 days | Bucks in 6 |
| 2022 | Warriors: 7 days | Celtics: 4 days | Warriors in 6 |
| 2023 | Nuggets: 10 days | Heat: 3 days | Nuggets in 5 |
| 2024 | Mavericks: 7 days | Celtics: 10 days | TBD |
*2020 and 2021 NBA Finals concluded seasons altered by COVID-19
Since 2003, teams that had a 10+ day layoff following the conference finals are 2-3 in the NBA Finals. The 2003 New Jersey Nets had 11 days between the ECF and Game 1 of the title round, falling to San Antonio in six games. Ten years later in 2013, the Spurs had 10 days to rest up for the Finals before falling to Miami in a seven-game classic. Golden State would be on both sides of the coin later in the decade. The Warriors followed up a 10-day layoff by gentlemen’s sweeping Cleveland in 2017, before falling to Toronto in 2019 after having the same amount of time off. And then last year in 2023, Denver had 10 days following its sweep of the Lakers in the WCF and would go on to dispatch of Miami in five games.
The Celtics will enter this series with a three-day head start on the Mavericks, who themselves have gotten plenty of time to rest after taking care of the Timberwolves in five games. There have been 11 instances where a team has had a 3+ day rest advantage over its NBA Finals opponent since 2003 and those teams are 6-5 in the title round. The Spurs are the most notable team in this sample as they were able to take advantage of this twice, first winning a seven game-war against the Pistons in 2005 before running the Cavaliers off the floor in a sweep two years later. However, they were not able to get the job done in 2013 despite having a massive one-week rest advantage against a Heat team coming off a seven-game brawl against the Pacers. But, last year’s Nuggets team were able to get the job done against a Heat team they had a full week head start on.
Of course, all of these aforementioned series had individual context that played a major role in the outcome of the series. The 2013 Spurs had their hearts ripped out by Ray Allen’s shot in Game 6 and that gave the Heat new life to rally for a win in Game 7. The 2017 Warriors with Kevin Durant were going to walk to the Larry O’Brien Trophy no matter how much time they had off prior. And in turn, the 2019 Warriors probably would’ve beaten the Raptors had both KD and Klay Thompson not suffered devastating injuries late in the series.
So recent NBA history suggests that the long layover won’t necessarily play a factor into the whether or not Boston comes out on top in this best-of-seven series. It’s almost an even split by results and other factors like matchups play a much bigger role in these series than rest. The Celtics come out a bit rusty in Game 1, but they should be in a good rhythm come Game 2.
Alright, that’s enough talking. Let’s see these two teams duke it out.