The University of North Carolina Tar Heels finished the 2018 season 2-9 (1-7 ACC) with Nathan Elliott having a disappointing season under center. The school wasted little time in firing head coach Larry Fedora and replacing him with Mack Brown. With a change of the guard at head coach, there also came a change under center with the emergence of true freshman Sam Howell. After playing three seasons for the Tar Heels, Howell was drafted in the 5th round of the 2022 NFL draft, paving the way for Drake Maye to take over. Maye spent two years playing at UNC and was drafted with the third overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.
Despite having two NFL-caliber quarterbacks in the last five years, the Tar Heels combined to go 38-27 (24-18 ACC) with only one ACC Coastal Division win, which was followed up by a blowout loss to Clemson in the 2022 ACC Championship Game. Now, heading into 2024, the ACC has added SMU, Stanford and California to the conference, eliminated divisions and UNC is expected to go with LSU/Texas A&M grad transfer Max Johnson under center. Is this finally the year that the Tar Heels can get over the hump and win the ACC?
Who is Max Johnson?
The 6-foot-5 signal-caller committed to LSU and was a freshman in 2020. He was named the third-string quarterback in the Tigers’ first season since Joe Burrow led them to a national title in 2019. Johnson played in six games as a freshman and finished with 1,069 yards with eight touchdowns to only one interception.
He was named as the starter for 2021 and led LSU to a 6-6 record. Johnson had a solid season stat-wise with 2,815 passing yards, 27 touchdowns and six interceptions, but couldn’t have a big enough impact to result in more wins. Jayden Daniels was coming in, and Johnson was heading out as he transferred to Texas A&M. He wasn’t able to solidify the starting gig, but over 12 total games between 2022 and 2023, Johnson finished with 1,969 yards, 12 touchdowns and five interceptions.
He hasn’t been able to land in a spot where he can develop and be his best, but Mack Brown has shown between Howell and Maye that he can develop quarterbacks, giving Johnson more upside. His only competition for the starting gig is redshirt sophomore Conner Harrell, who he should beat out.
Who did the Tar Heels lose on offense, and who is coming back?
It will be tough to replace Maye, but if the Tar Heels take a step back this season under center, they will likely get boosts elsewhere on offense. UNC was a young team in 2023 and returns most of its starters while adding some much-needed talent on the offensive line through the transfer portal.
Wide receiver Devontez Walker and linebacker Cedric Gray joined Maye in the NFL Draft, both being selected in the fourth round. Junior running back Omarion Hampton returns to the backfield after rushing for 1,504 yards and 15 touchdowns a season ago.
While it feels like Walker is a big loss to the receiving corps, UNC brings back seven of its top eight pass-catchers from a season ago. Senior J.J. Jones led the Tar Heels in 2023 with 711 yards and three touchdowns. Tight end Bryson Nesbit had 585 yards and five touchdowns (second-most on the team) a season ago. Nate McCollum (469 yards, a touchdown), Kobe Paysour (282 yards, three touchdowns) and John Copenhaver (279 yards, four touchdowns) are all back to help Johnson ease into Brown’s offensive scheme.
Odds to win ACC
The odds aren’t in UNC’s favor to win the ACC. Oddsmakers at DraftKings Sportsbook have the Tar Heels’ win total at over/under 7.5. UNC has the ninth-best odds to win the conference. Clemson (+310) leads the way and is followed by Miami (+450), Louisville (+600) and North Carolina State (+700). For context, UNC has slightly worse odds than Syracuse (+4000), so the Tar Heels are expected to face an uphill battle this season.
2024 Schedule
8/29 — @ Minnesota
9/7 — vs. Charlotte
9/14 — vs. NC Central
9/21 — vs. James Madison
9/28 — @ Duke
10/5 — vs. Pittsburgh
10/12 — vs. Georgia Tech
10/26 — @ Virginia
11/2 — @ Florida State
11/16 — vs. Wake Forest
11/23 — @ Boston College
11/30 — vs. NC State
When looking at this schedule, you will notice a few things. First, UNC isn’t scheduled to play any of the three new ACC members. Second, the Tar Heels don’t have to play the likes of Clemson, Notre Dame or Louisville. The conference decided to go division-less with the expansion, so North Carolina would have to finish as a top-two team to have an ACC Championship berth.
Going on the road against Minnesota will be a good measuring stick for Johnson and the Heels. The away environment will be tough, but the Golden Gophers are coming off a 6-7 (3-6 Big Ten) season, so this is a chance to set the tone for the season. Charlotte and NC Central at home continue this trend and give the Tar Heels a great chance to settle in and solidify a strong foundation to build off of heading into conference play.
James Madison had an impressive 11-2 (7-1 Sun Belt) season last year, but the Tar Heels will be at home, and the Dukes will be heading into this matchup after a very early off week. Duke won’t have quarterback Riley Leonard, who transferred to Notre Dame, and former head coach Mike Elko is now at Texas A&M. Pitt hasn’t looked right since Kenny Pickett left for the NFL Draft, and that streak should continue in 2024. Georgia Tech always gives UNC trouble, but the Tar Heels will be at home and have an important off week following this game.
North Carolina will be on the road and refreshed against Virginia before its toughest test of the season. We all saw how bad FSU looked last year when their starters didn’t play after getting screwed over with the CFP. But with how the Seminoles reloaded through the transfer portal, this is going to be a very hard game for UNC to sneak a victory. Let’s say that game is a loss before the Tar Heels get back into the win column against Wake Forest and Boston College.
NC State presents the second-toughest test of the season. Assuming that UNC fares well up until this point, they’re at home, and this could be the year they snap their three-game losing streak to the Wolfpack. It’s worth noting that the last Tar Heel win in this rivalry was at home in 2020.
At this point, it would come down to an ACC Championship game against whichever team finishes second in the conference.
Final Thoughts
UNC has won the ACC five times in program history, but the last came in 1980. Obviously, to win a college football conference a lot has to go right for your program and wrong for others. UNC will need to show that it was able to develop its young players from a season ago, and there is a lot of pressure to win while still having Brown as the head coach. Nobody likely has more pressure than Johnson under center. There’s a path to a 2024 ACC Championship for UNC, but it hinges on Johnson stepping up.