The Mavericks and Celtics get the NBA Finals underway when Game 1 tips on Thursday night in Boston. Here’s what stands out on DraftKings Sportsbook for betting the first game of the series.
For my analysis on the full series, I put out a pair of plays in this article.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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Kristaps Porzingis 1Q Points: OVER 3.5 (-112) — 1-unit
Porzingis hasn’t played since Game 4 against Miami back on April 29, but will be returning for Game 1 of the NBA Finals. Yes, obviously, we are taking on a bit of risk here backing a player to have a strong start in his first game in over a month, but the discount is just too significant to overlook.
In the 61 games Porzingis played in this season (including postseason), he is the team’s leading scorer in the first quarter — averaging 6.9 points in 9.5 minutes. He scored four or more points on 46 of those occasions, cashing the over on his first quarter point prop if it were set at 3.5 just over 75% of the time.
While a minutes restriction could be in the cards for KP, I’d expect the injury to linger as he racks up more minutes, and not early in the game. This prop is priced for Porzingis to play about 4-5 minutes in the opening frame, which seems a little light to me.
In his return, I’d look for the C’s to look to get their big man involved early, just as they did in the most recent regular season matchup. KP sat out the matchup in Dallas in January, but when these teams went at it in Boston on March 1, they exploited the mismatch he had and Porzingis went off for 13 points (4-of-6 FG, 3-of-4 3-point FG and a pair of free throws).
I expect Boston to use Porzingis to pull the Dallas bigs away from the rim yet again, getting him some good looks from downtown early in the series. Essentially, we’re getting a 50% discount on this prop, and that’s too much for me to pass on.
Celtics 1H Team Total OVER 56.5 (-115) — 1-unit
The Celtics led the NBA in first half scoring this season at 62.4 points per game — a number that jumped slightly in home games to 62.7. While Dallas ranked just below league average in first half points per game, they could not contain the Celtics in the two regular season matchups. Boston dropped 65 in Dallas in January without Porzingis, and then 66 in the half in a home game in March.
As for the rest versus rust argument with the Celtics being off for over a week heading into Game 1, it hasn’t been an issue for them all postseason. Boston has had at least six days between games leading up to all three Game 1’s its played so far this postseason, and the C’s have gone for totals of 60 vs. Miami, 59 vs. Cleveland and 64 vs. Indiana.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
