The 2024 NBA Finals are set with the Boston Celtics taking on the Dallas Mavericks for the title. The Celtics were the No. 1 seed in the East and had the best record in the NBA during the regular season, while the Mavericks were able to hit the road as the No. 5 seed in the West and advance to the Finals. Boston was one of the top teams in most advanced metrics during the entirety of the regular season but Dallas actually was the top team in defensive rating and net rating over the last month or so. Here’s a look at how the teams match up in this title series and our prediction for how things will play out. All odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Celtics vs. Mavericks predictions
Odds to win series: Celtics -210, Mavericks +175
Regular season record: Celtics 64-18, Mavericks 50-32
Head-to-head record: Celtics 2-0
The good news for the Mavericks is they have caught fire at the right time. Dallas’ recent surge has been enough to take out some of the best teams in the West, including the No. 1 seed Thunder and the No. 3 seed Timberwolves. The Mavericks got a bit lucky facing the Clippers without Kawhi Leonard but they had the other opponents at full strength. The Celtics were dominant in the East but might’ve gotten away with some lethargic play thanks to injuries in the opponent camp. Boston faced the Heat without Jimmy Butler, the Cavaliers without Jarrett Allen and Donovan Mitchell for two games, and the Pacers without Tyrese Haliburton for two games. The Celtics were still in control of both series but never looked like they were really pushed. That could be an issue going up against a team that is not only in form but also has top-end talent in Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving.
Pick: Celtics in 6 games (+475)
Kristaps Porzingis is set to return for Boston, which boosts the Celtics a bit more in this series. The big man has been out with a calf strain and the team’s dominance has allowed him to get a few more weeks to recover. He should be ready to go without any setbacks. The Mavericks might have the two best players in the series in Doncic and Irving, but it’s hard to find someone outside of those two guards who matches up with most of Boston’s rotation.
The Celtics struggled from behind the arc against Indiana and still swept the Pacers, a sign that things could turn around eventually from the perimeter. Dallas’ defense has been transformed since the trade deadline, and that success has carried over into the postseason. However, this is the most talented roster across the board the Mavericks will face in the postseason.
Doncic and Irving are proven playoff performers who have executed in clutch moments time and time again, which makes this a tough series to predict despite Boston’s overall roster superiority. Neither team has lost back-to-back games in the playoffs, and the Celtics have yet to lose on the road this postseason. That gives Boston the edge and I’ll pick the Celtics to take the series in six games to lift the franchise’s 18th title.