The 2023 Pittsburgh Steelers couldn’t score points, ranking 28th in the league with 17.8 points per game. That led to the in-season dismissal of OC Matt Canada and the off-season hiring of Arthur Smith, the former Titans OC and Falcons head coach. The hope of course is that Smith can return to his Titan’s OC days and help build up a top tier offense instead of a return to his Falcons days where his team went 7-10 three straight seasons and the offense was dysfunctional. The lack of an NFL starting caliber quarterback hurt Smith, but he didn’t come out of his three seasons in Atlanta with much to hang his hat on. The question is, with him again focusing solely on the offense, can he put together a good offense with a new quarterback over one off-season? And more importantly, for our purposes, can he help their two running backs, Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren, put up usable fantasy numbers?
No matter how you feel about Smith’s ability as an OC, he did have success in Tennessee with Ryan Tannehill at QB, Derrick Henry at RB, and A.J. Brown at WR. That group under Smith put together a top tier offense, with all three skill players sporting strong fantasy numbers. Smith emphasizes the run game and deep play action. That worked well with the trio of Tannehill, Henry and Brown, but not so well with the Falcons skill group.
In Pittsburgh, Smith will work with Russell Wilson (or possibly Justin Fields) at QB, the duo of Harris and Warren at RB, and George Pickens at WR. We can take a look at his past backfield usage for some insight into how he uses the running backs available to him.
Titans, 2019
Derrick Henry — 15 gms, 303 rushes, 1,540 yards, 16 TDs, 24 tar., 18 rec. 206 yards, 2 TDs (327 looks)
Dion Lewis — 16 gms, 54 rushes, 209 yards, 0 TDs, 32 tar., 25 rec., 164 yards, 1 TD (86 looks)
Titans, 2020
Derrick Henry — 16 gms, 378 rushes, 2,027 yards, 17 TDs, 31 tar., 19 rec. 114 yards, 0 TDs (409 looks)
Jeremy McNichols — 16 gms, 47 rushes, 204 yards, 1 TD, 17 tar., 12 rec., 55 yards, 0 TDs (64 looks)
Falcons, 2021
Cordarrelle Patterson — 16 gms, 153 rushes, 618 yards, 6 TDs, 69 tar., 52 rec. 548 yards, 5 TDs (222 looks)
Mike Davis — 17 gms, 138 rushes, 503 yards, 3 TDs, 58 tar., 44 rec., 259 yards, 1 TD (196 looks)
Falcons, 2022
Tyler Allgeier — 16 gms, 210 rushes, 1,035 yards, 3 TDs, 17 tar., 16 rec. 139 yards, 1 TD (227 looks)
Cordarrelle Patterson — 13 gms, 144 rushes, 695 yards, 8 TDs, 31 tar., 21 rec., 122 yards, 0 TDs (175 looks)
Caleb Huntley — 12 gms, 76 rushes, 366 yards, 1 TD, 2 tar., 2 rec. 3 yards, 0 TDs (78 looks)
Falcons, 2023
Bijan Robinson — 17 gms, 214 rushes, 976 yards, 4 TDs, 86 tar., 58 rec. 487 yards, 4 TDs (300 looks)
Tyler Allgeier — 17 gms, 186 rushes, 683 yards, 4 TDs, 23 tar., 18 rec. 193 yards, 1 TD (209 looks)
Cordarrelle Patterson — 14 gms, 50 rushes, 181 yards, 0 TDs, 12 tar., 9 rec., 38 yards, 1 TD (62 looks)
There is little doubt the ability of Henry dominated the Titans offense and the running back touches when Smith was there, so it is difficult to compare it to the Steelers situation. The good news for the Steelers RBs is we do know Smith had no qualms with running the ball, a lot, and was able to do it quite successfully.
With the Falcons, he didn’t have nearly the talent as Henry in his first two seasons, so a split backfield between Patterson and Davis was in order. And it was a great year for Patterson, as he totaled over 1,050 yards and 11 touchdowns. While Davis didn’t play as well, but still had 762 yards and four touchdowns.
Injuries started to slow down Patterson in 2022, which pushed Huntley into a few more snaps, but Patterson still had a good season. Allgeier, who had a strong rookie season, made for a good dynamic in the backfield and one that we could see play out similarly in Pittsburgh.
Last year, the Falcons added first round running back Robinson, who might not have got the work his fantasy investors would have liked, but he still saw 300 looks (rushing attempts + targets). That’s a strong workload despite the other back, Allgeier, seeing over 200 looks. The trouble for Robinson was a lack of goal-line usage and overall poor QB play, but he still managed an RB9 finish in PPR leagues, while Allgeier saw a decrease in efficiency his sophomore season.
Steelers backfield 2023 usage
Last season both Harris and Warren split work, with Harris as the lead back. Here’s how their season looked.
Najee Harris — 17 gms, 255 rushes, 1,035 yards, 8 TDs, 38 tar., 29 rec. 170 yards, 0 TDs (293 looks)
Jaylen Warren — 17 gms, 149 rushes, 784 yards, 4 TDs, 74 tar., 61 rec. 370 yards, 0 TDs (223 looks)
Both players saw enough work to have fantasy relevance, but with the offense unable to move the ball consistently, the touchdown numbers held both backs back. Warren was the more efficient of the two backs, but he also had better situations than Harris, who worked in more short-yardage, stacked boxes.
Both players are good, but Warren has more juice than Harris, and is more of a threat for explosive plays. On the season, Harris averaged 4.1 yards per carry to Warren’s 5.3 ypc. Warren also was the better receiver, but, he graded out poorly as a pass blocker per Pro Football Focus. That didn’t stop him from earning 74 targets though.
Harris saw 11 rushing attempts and one target inside the opponent’s five-yard line last season, while Warren saw five rushing attempts and no targets. Harris managed five touchdowns to Warren’s zero on those attempts.
How might the 2024 Steelers backfield breakdown?
Harris should remain the lead/short-yardage back. With Warren at 5’8”, 216 lbs. and Harris at 6’1”, 235 lbs., I don’t think we will see a switch in their roles, but total looks could change. The hope for Warren is that he will continue to be a big part of the passing game, while continuing to split work in the running game. Add in the loss of WR Diontae Johnson this off-season, and we can expect Warren to get more opportunities as a receiver.
Last season, fantasy players didn’t like that Robinson wasn’t the Falcons no-doubt lead back, but the running back usage for Atlanta was by far the most in the league. The Falcons gave running backs 569 total looks, ranking first in rushing attempts and fifth in targets. The Steelers weren’t that far behind them though, ranking sixth in attempts, seventh in targets and fifth in overall looks with 518.
The hope this year is that an upgrade at the quarterback position and the offensive line will help the Steelers get into the red-zone more often than recent history. If efficiency can go up just a little, we could feel good about both backs in fantasy, as their touches will be there under Smith.
Steelers RB’s current ADP
Najee Harris
Overall (STD) — 58
RB (STD) — 19
Overall (PPR) — 90
RB (PPR) — 24
Overall (1/2 PPR) — 67
RB (1/2 PPR) — 20
Jaylen Warren
Overall (STD) — 89
RB (STD) — 31
Overall (PPR) — 92
RB (PPR) — 26
Overall (1/2 PPR) — 88
RB (1/2 PPR) — 28
Last season Harris finished 20th in standard, 23rd in PPR, and 21st in half PPR.
Last season Warren finished 30th in standard, 22nd in PPR, and 25th in half PPR.
Will either of the Steelers RBs help you win your fantasy league?
Pittsburgh’s offense is very much in flux, but even if you aren’t a big fan of the new OC, we do know he loves getting the ball to his running backs both on the ground and through the air. We can feel assured that there will be plenty of opportunities for both backs, unfortunately, their upside will have a lot to do with how well Wilson or Fields plays QB under a new offense and new team.
The offensive line was not good for the Steelers last year, but they did go after o-linemen in the draft, taking one in the first round and another in the second. How quickly the new faces can make an impact will be a key part in getting their offense going.
Should we draft Steelers RBs at ADP?
At Harris’ current ADP, I’m likely to pass on drafting him. Warren showed well enough last season to continue to split work fairly evenly and if anyone is going to see an increase in work this year, it should be Warren. With Harris’ current ADP, I believe we’re paying for those 293 looks, which could fall closer to 250-275 if Warren sees a bump.
I plan on staying away from Warren in standard leagues, but will be happy to take him in PPR leagues. His ADP isn’t a smoking value at RB26, but I like his ability and likely usage enough to believe he’s a safe pick there, while also being an upside pick coming out of a strong ‘23 season.