The NBA Finals has arrived, and while we have a week layoff between the Conference Finals and Game 1 in Boston, it also gives us plenty of time to dig into betting angles. The Celtics were heavy favorites to come out of the Eastern Conference, while the Mavericks were a bit of a surprise out west.
Here’s what stands out on DraftKings Sportsbook for betting the full series — I plan to follow up with specific Game 1 plays during the week the series begins.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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Game 1/Series Double: Celtics Win Game 1/Win Series (-130) — 2-units
While both teams will get plenty of rest heading into Game 1 on June 6, it is a luxury for the Celtics to get extended time off before this series tips given the status of Kristaps Porzingis. With the sweep of the Pacers, Boston wasn’t forced to even consider bringing Porzingis back into the lineup, now able to rest him over five weeks since he suffered a calf injury in Game 4 in Miami. Sure, there could be a bit of early rust, but Boston is working KP into game shape, and I expect him to be fully healthy for the start of the series.
These NBA Finals will feature two of the best road teams in the NBA — Boston is 33-14, while Dallas is 32-18. But the C’s have been the better team protecting their home court this season, which has been an issue in the past — sitting at43-6 at the TD Garden.
Boston has faced a layoff of six of more days before starting each series this playoff run, and have gone 3-0 in the following Game 1’s at home. Meanwhile, the Mavericks got blown out in a pair of road Game 1’s against the Clippers and Thunder, before ultimately winning the series. They bucked that trend in the Western Conference Finals, but it was a dreadful spot for the Timberwolves, who were 48 hours removed from erasing a 20-point deficit in the second half on the road in a Game 7 against the defending champs.
Say what you will about the easy path through the east, if now isn’t the time for the Celtics to breakthrough, then there isn’t a time. I like the C’s to take Game 1 at home and then finish off an entertaining NBA Finals.
Series Spread: Celtics -1.5 Games (+100) — 2-units
While entertaining, I do feel the Celtics should be able to finish this in five or six games. Dallas can be a tricky handicap since it has improved so much over the course of the season, but the C’s also matchup pretty well.
Boston earned a hard fought victory in Dallas back in January in which Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving both played. The Mavs came to Boston in early March with both PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford in the rotation, and ultimately lost by 28 points in a game that was close entering the fourth quarter.
Dallas has a pair of terrific closers, but I do like that Boston was forced to find ways to close some tight games on the road in Indiana to win the east. If the C’s are able to protect home court early, expect a win in Dallas to help the C’s get this one finished without needing the Game 7 they have in their back pocket.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
