Almost every team is in action tonight. I’ll give a few bets I like tonight on DraftKings Sportsbook that you can tail.
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Philadelphia Phillies vs. St. Louis Cardinals
The Pick: Phillies team total over 4.5 runs -105
Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you know the Phillies offense has been rolling. Not only are they averaging 5.2 runs per game, that number jumps up to 5.7 when playing at home. Tonight they’ll be going against Miles Mikolas, who continues to struggle on the mound. On the road, Mikolas has thrown 32.2 innings and has a 5.51 ERA with a .352 wOBA and a 4.07 FIP. Mikolas is a fastball pitcher, throwing both a sinker and a four seamer a combined 51% of the time. The Phillies are handling both of those pitches with ease. Tonights expected lineup has a combined .380 wOBA against the sinker and .342 wOBA against the four seam. The Phillies have been the most profitable team in the league when it comes to betting the over on the team total, going 39-18.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays
The Pick: Orioles team total over 4.5 runs +110
Another team total I like is the Orioles going over 4.5 at plus money. They’ve also been one of the more profitable teams to bet the over on, going 31-23. Tonight, they’ll face Aaron Civale, who has been getting roughed up on the road. Civale has a 7.40 ERA through 24.1 innings with a .371 wOBA and a 4.89 FIP. Lefties have been a big problem for him overall, as they tagged him for a .376 wOBA with five of the 11 home runs he’s allowed. This Orioles lineup has some very good hitting lefties at the top with Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman and Ryan O’Hearn. Civale focuses on a cut fastball mainly and since last season, this expected O’s lineup has a .426 wOBA against that pitch. I think the O’s put up some runs in this game.
Cleveland Guardians vs. Washington Nationals
The Pick: Game Total over 7.5 runs -115
You’ll likely look at this total, see Patrick Corbin is pitching for the Nationals and wonder why it’s so low. I mean, this is a pitcher who has an xERA north of 6 and has allowed at least four runs in seven of his 11 starts. On the other side is Tanner Bibee, who has been solid but has a big weakness, and this is why I’m on the over. Bibee has really poor numbers against lefties. He has a .368 wOBA with a 4.58 FIP and a 3.7 BB/9. This Nationals lineup will be very left-handed heavy, starting as many as six tonight. Between that and the normal woes of Corbin, I think we can get over 7.5 runs tonight. The only initial pause I did have was that both bullpens have been solid. Without knowing that, the line probably looks fishy. But, I think we’re going to see both starters struggle and the oddsmakers seem to agree. For instance, the over 4.5 runs through the first five innings is set at -115. The bulk of the offense should come early. That said, I wouldn’t be shocked if both starters are out of this one early and thus, we’re cashing the full game over.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.
