The Minnesota Timberwolves avoided a sweep in the 2024 Western Conference Finals and will now attempt to send the series back to Texas as they host the Dallas Mavericks in Game 5 in Minneapolis Thursday evening. The Timberwolves have not won a game at home in this series, but they’ll have some confidence after finally closing things out against a Mavericks team has been lights out in clutch situations so far this postseason.
Luka Doncic and Dereck Lively have been listed as questionable, though only the latter’s status is truly up in the air. Maxi Kleber is off the injury report for Dallas. Mike Conley is “questionable” for the Timberwolves.
The Timberwolves are 5-point favorites according to DraftKings Sportsbook with the total sitting at 209.5. Minnesota is -192 on the moneyline while Dallas is +160.
Mavericks vs. Timberwolves, 8:30 p.m. ET
Pick ATS: Mavericks +5
I’ve missed on all the ATS picks in this series so far, so you’d have good reason to fade my choice Thursday. The Mavericks have not lost back-to-back games yet this postseason and they don’t seem like a team that would be the first in NBA history to blow a 3-0 series lead in the playoffs. They’re going to win a game at some point, and I’ll be picking them in each contest from here on out due to that. Dallas is 23-13 this season after a loss, which is also its ATS clip in the category. The Mavericks are 13-11 ATS as road underdogs, while the Timberwolves are 17-25-2 ATS as home favorites.
Minnesota needed a breakout showing from Karl-Anthony Towns and a near triple-double from Anthony Edwards to scrape past a Mavericks team that saw Doncic and Kyrie Irving shoot 13-39 from the floor. The Timberwolves are unlikely to get the type of balanced production from their starters again in Game 5, while Irving should be able to bounce back after losing a closeout game for the first time in his career. Games 1 and 2 in Minnesota were close so the Timberwolves could come on the right side of another tight contest, but I’ll take Dallas to cover this line.
Over/Under: Over 209.5
While my ATS track record in this series has been poor, I’ve been able to have more success with totals. The first three games of this series all went over this total, while Game 4 went slightly under thanks to some poor shooting from Dallas’ star guards. As mentioned earlier, there should be a bit of regression on both ends with Minnesota seeing some decline while Dallas gets a boost. Overall, I think we continue to get tight games and that usually means the over hits on lower totals. I’ll take the over to hit again Thursday.