Yes, this is because I listened to the Steve Dangle Podcast. We’ll get that out of the way immediately. But it’s definitely a thought-provoking discussion and one worth visiting before we get into the offseason and NHL free agency. The Toronto Maple Leafs are interested in bringing back forward Max Domi this offseason and the asking price, per reports from TSN’s Pierre LeBrun.
Here’s the YouTube clip of Dangle and the guys talking Domi’s next deal.
They also discuss pending unrestricted free agent Tyler Bertuzzi a bit and what his next deal might look like. There’s reportedly mutual interest between Toronto and both Bertuzzi and Domi this offseason. We’ll focus on Domi, since there’s the more polarizing player. Bertuzzi should see around $5.5-6 million on a new contract. Apparently, Domi is asking for $6 million. That seems like a lot.
The thing is the cap is going up by about $4.2 million for 2024-25. That isn’t a final number so it could be less, but the expectation is around that much. That’ll by default mean guys are worth slightly more. It’s also expected to rise throughout what should be the course of Domi’s potential contract.
Even if it’s a few seasons. It feels like the money matters less, it’s the years that should come into question. Overpaying for Domi shouldn’t kill the Maple Leafs in a few seasons, assuming the cap goes up and Mitch Marner is traded. But the deal could look bad down the road if Domi falls off in his 30s and isn’t more than an OK bottom-6 forward. Domi provides a lot of intangibles, sure, but you don’t overpay or give out term to that sort of thing. It’s something that can be bought cheap in free agency. At Domi’s level of production, you’d want at least 20-25 goals and/or 50-60 points.
What the Leafs would be paying a premium price on is a good third-line center right now. At $6 million for 2024-25, knowing the Leafs will be up against the cap even if Marner is traded, Domi would need to produce more. Same would go for Bertuzzi, really. The idea if you give up Marner is to bring in more depth and another top defenseman. Bringing back both Bertuzzi and Domi may make that difficult, though the forward group would remain above average.
If the Leafs can shell out another year of term (around 4-5 years), maybe they can get a hometown discount on Domi and keep him for around $5 million. The contract length that makes the most sense for a team for Domi is no more than four years. That final year Domi is approaching 33 years old. By that time he should decline into more of a bottom-6 forward. Even paying $5 million isn’t a great look for that type of player, but again, the cap is going up. We should see bottom-6 forwards be worth around $5-6 million in the future. Right now, premium third- and fourth-liners are worth around $3-4M.
The only path that feels good for the Maple Leafs is to get a hometown discount somehow. The issue is there will certainly be interest in Domi’s services from other teams. Other teams with more cap space and lineup flexibility. So it would appear either way, Toronto is choosing between Bertuzzi and Domi in free agency.
Domi feels like he holds more value given the presence of young wings Nick Robertson and Matthew Knies. You don’t have to pay Knies quite yet and Robertson shouldn’t get a lot in arbitration/restricted free agency. Ideally, Knies and Robertson hit RFA again next offseason and you can better assess that situation. If one or both steps up, you’re in good shape if Domi is back in the fold.
Daily Faceoff is projecting Domi to get a three-year deal worth $4.2 million annually. That would be well below what he’s asking for and is really just a good projection based off his value. A team would love that deal. Domi, not so much. If the Leafs can get something in the middle, perhaps four years at $5.25 million, I think you take that. By the fourth year that deal should be easy to trade if need be. The term isn’t too long and it allows Robertson and Knies to get into their primes before Domi is off the books.
Domi brings some intangibles and toughness the Leafs need to hold onto right now. Not let go of. Adding some more depth in the bottom-6 and another elite puck-mover, and the Maple Leafs could start steering this ship in the right direction.