It’s Thursday, so we’re back at the MLB grind with a teeny-tiny four-game featured slate. Still, that doesn’t mean there isn’t a lot of star power taking the field this evening. There remains tough choices when constructing your lineups — and that’s where I come in.
Let’s break it all down and find some studs and values on the diamond.
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PITCHER
Stud
Jack Flaherty, Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox, $8,700 – Few pitchers in baseball have looked better than Flaherty over the last six weeks. Dating back to April 19, the RHP has started seven games and thrown 42.2 innings. In that span, Flaherty also possesses a 1.58 xFIP and a 37.2% strikeout rate — both figures that are the best marks in all of baseball. Meanwhile, Boston’s struggled to do much with its bats in May. The team enters play on Thursday with an 89 wRC+ and a 25.1% strikeout rate in the month. On top of that, the Red Sox just put Tyler O’Neill (knee) on the IL. That’s their home run leader in 2024.
Value
Christian Scott, New York Mets vs. Arizona Diamondbacks, $6,900 – Things are not going well in Queens, but don’t let that sour your view of Scott. The rookie RHP has looked good in his first four starts at the MLB level, pitching to a 3.31 xERA with a 12.1% swinging strike rate. Scott has a pretty nice opportunity to build on those stats this evening with the floundering Diamondbacks visiting New York. Arizona’s offense has been stuck in the mud the last two weeks, posting a 75 wRC+ that ranks 28th in baseball. Yikes.
INFIELD
Stud
Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals, $5,200 – This is a play that’s far more about Olson than it is picking on Trevor Williams ($6,500), who has been amazing so far in 2024. Olson’s bat has simply started to heat up. Going back to May 10, the All-Star is slashing .301/.346/.575 with a 159 wRC+ in his 78 plate appearances. Olson possesses more raw power than almost any hitter in MLB. In an opposite-hand matchup, I’ll always give him a look.
Stud
Anthony Volpe, New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels, $4,600 – In an ideal world, you’re using Volpe against a left-handed opponent. For his career, Volpe’s 122 wRC+ within the split is 30 points higher than it is versus RHPs. His .788 OPS within the split is over 100 points higher than his mark when facing a right-hander. It’s a stark contrast. Patrick Sandoval ($6,000) surrendered eight earned runs his last time out. I’d expect Volpe and the rest of the Yankees to do some damage.
Value
Zach Neto, Los Angeles Angeles vs. New York Yankees, $3,400 – The Angels are actually quite good against LHPs, sitting with the fifth-highest wRC+ in the league (119). Neto has been a huge part of that success, as the former first-round pick is slashing .469/.485/.656 with a 227 wRC+ in his 33 plate appearances within the split this season. It’s a small sample and Carlos Rodon ($8,200) has been fantastic as of late, but at this price, Neto’s surely worth some exposure.
OUTFIELD
Stud
Aaron Judge, New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels, $6,100 – Just pay up for Judge. Don’t think too hard about it. After a slow start to the season, the former MVP is back to his usual ways, ranking 100th percentile in expected wOBA (.463), expected slugging (.713) and barrel rate (28.0%). In May, Judge has 11 home runs in only 88 at-bats, a ratio that produces an eye-popping .511 ISO. The numbers are staggering. With the struggling Sandoval on the bump for Los Angeles, Judge needs to be in your lineups.
Value
Lane Thomas, Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves, $4,100 – Thomas is a top-tier platoon bat. The outfielder is also an elite stolen base threat, which helps his overall value, but at the end of the day, you want to be using the 28-year-old versus LHPs. For his career, Thomas is hitting .302 with a 137 wRC+ within the split. Ray Kerr ($5,900) is left-handed. Kerr is also someone who hasn’t really been a starting pitcher since 2018 in High-A. I don’t think it’s random that he allowed five earned runs over four innings in his first MLB start last week.
Value
Jo Adell, Los Angeles Angels vs. New York Yankees, $3,700 – Adell’s production has cooled since a torrid start, yet his numbers against LHPs remain strong. That honestly might be underselling it. In his 38 plate appearances within the split, Adell owns a team-high .467 expected wOBA. In fact, among all players with at least 30 PAs versus southpaws this season, Adell sits fifth — trailing a star-studded group that includes the aforementioned Judge. If Rodon has a weakness, it’s the long ball, and Adell can certainly take advantage.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $125K Relay Throw [$25K to 1st]
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
