The Braves and Nats close out this series with a matchup between Trevor Williams and Ray Kerr. Not exactly a pair of showstoppers, but Williams has been as consistent as any starter this season, and Kerr has the ability to rack up some strikeouts.
There’s a prop for each starting pitcher that’s playable — in part because of what they bring to the table, but also because of some of the numbers their opposing lineups have put up. Here’s a look at some of Washington’s numbers against left-handed pitching and some of Atlanta’s against right-handed pitching:
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Washington is in the middle of the pack in terms of strikeout rate against left-handed pitching at 22.1%. But, they also struggle to produce, entering Thursday with a .281 wOBA, .105 ISO and .295 OBP against lefties this season. That brings Kerr’s strikeouts prop into play at 4.5, with +125 odds to the over. Kerr has only gone over this number once, but it wasn’t until two outings ago that Atlanta really started to stretch him out. If he’s allowed to continue to work past 60 pitches, five strikeouts are in play.
As for Williams, his outs recorded line is set at 15.5, with +135 odds to the over. Williams has only gone over this number three times in 10 starts, and he’s yet to eclipse this mark in May. But with Atlanta’s offense going quiet this series, Williams is in position to finally record at least one out in the sixth on Thursday.
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*Odds and lines are for illustrative purposes only.
As for the hitters in this game, here’s a look at how some of them have performed over their last five games against their hits line for Thursday’s matchup via the Consistency Sheets in the DraftKings Sportsbook Stats Hub:
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CJ Abrams has done some considerable damage against left-handed pitching this season. Across 62 plate appearances against left-handed pitching, he’s logged a .387 OBP, .267 ISO and .439 wOBA. Despite Kerr being better against left-handed hitters, Abrams is an appealing play at +140 to go over 1.5 total bases.
Matt Olson doesn’t have numbers on that level, but he seems to be gaining some momentum. His .178 ISO against right-handed pitching is a massive drop-off from where he finished last season, but more of his struggles with righties have come on the road. At home, Olson has a .217 ISO against right-handed pitching, making him a candidate to go over 1.5 total bases with +105 odds.
Same Game Parlaying Olson and Abrams to each log at least one hit provides +104 odds.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
