Every team is in action tonight, including the second-half of the doubleheader between the Dodgers and Mets. I’ll give a few bets I like on DraftKings Sportsbook that you can tail.
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Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago White Sox
The Pick: Blue Jays Team Total over 4.5 runs -115
The Blue Jays are taking on Mike Clevinger tonight at Guaranteed Rate Field. It’s been a rough go for Clevinger, who sports a 6.75 ERA with an xERA of 7.13. He hasn’t been doing himself any favors either, as he’s walking over five batters per nine innings. When men are on base, he crumbles, as opposing hitters are slashing .333/.467/.583 with a .446 wOBA in that situation. The Blue Jays offense has been rolling lately, averaging 5.6 runs over the last five games while going over 4.5 runs in three of them. Clevinger is not going deep into games and has yet to complete more than 4.2 innings of work. This leaves a big chunk of work for the bullpen to pick up, which hasn’t been going well. Over the past week, the White Sox bullpen has logged 26 innings of work and has a 5.88 ERA with a 4.1 BB/9 and a 1.7 HR/9.
I also like taking Danny Jansen to go over 1.5 bases. This is a great spot for him, as he’s been crushing fastballs. Dating back to last season, he has a .419 wOBA and a .356 ISO against them. I included him in a SGP that you can tail on DraftKings Sportsbook. Details below.
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Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals
The Pick: Kyle Gibson under 16.5 outs recorded +100
Regression is coming for Kyle Gibson soon. Taking a look at his numbers, he has a 3.81 ERA, which looks nice, but that’s accompanied by a 5.54 xERA. So it’s very evident that his defense has been bailing him out. On top of that, his sinker, which he throws 29% of the time as his primary pitch, hitters have a .326 wOBA against it but an xWOBA of .378. I’m expecting some good results from the Reds lineup, who hit sinkers well. They enter tonight with .354 wOBA against that pitch dating back to last season and only a 20% K%. I think this will be a short outing for Gibson, who would need to record an out in the sixth inning for the over to cash. Give me under 16.5 outs recorded.
Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins
The Pick: Royals moneyline -125
After a really rough start against the Angels, in which Cole Ragans allowed seven runs in 6.1 innings, he’s fired off 14 innings of shutout baseball since. He’ll look to ride that momentum tonight against the Twins, which will be the second time he’s faced this club. In that previous start, Ragans allowed two runs on five hits with nine strikeouts through six innings. The Twins haven’t hit for much power against lefties, which has my attention on the Royals moneyline. The Twins projected lineup has just a .159 ISO and a .316 wOBA against lefties with a 22% K%. Aside from two bad starts, Ragans has pitched at least six innings and allowed two runs or less in eight of his 11 starts.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.
