It’s a good time to start tailing these articles. After back-to-back perfect nights last Monday and Wednesday, we’re now sitting at 10-4 in May and 21-11 (+9.6u) for the MLB season as whole on plays. I’m so red-hot, I’m not even going to let a holiday stop me from writing. You’re welcome.
Let’s dive into today’s slate.
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Philadelphia Phillies at San Francisco Giants
Over 8 (-110)
While I’m fairly confident that Blake Snell isn’t nearly as bad as he’s looked so far in 2024, his struggles at least make sense. Snell didn’t sign with the Giants until extremely late in Spring Training, which meant an unnatural offseason and build-up program for the left-hander. Snell was also due for some regression. Do you know hard it is to post the league’s lowest ERA (2.25) while also posting its highest walk rate (13.3%)? It’s really, really difficult. It takes having the third-lowest BABIP (.256) among qualified arms and the highest strand rate (86.7%) by a jaw-dropping margin. This season was never going to look like last year. It was statistically impossible. That said, even the biggest doubter didn’t envision 19 earned runs across Snell’s first 15.0 innings.
Then there’s Taijuan Walker. Needless to say, his struggles also make sense. The 31-year-old has seen his velocity decline yet again in 2024 and, in turn, he’s currently rocking a ghastly 6.41 xERA. Walker has surrendered a barrel on 17.1% of opponent batted ball events this season — the most of any pitcher that’s induced at least 55 BBEs. Unsurprisingly, that level of quality contact has led directly to the veteran RHP allowing 2.03 home runs per nine. Get out the soap. Walker is washed.
The Phillies lead the National League in wRC+ in the month of May (116). Sitting second? The Giants with a mark of 113. These are two hot lineups squaring off with two spiralling starters. Oracle Park certainly favors the pitchers, but it isn’t a miracle worker. This game is going over.
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Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets
***Editor’s note: Monday’s game between the Mets and Dodgers has been postponed due to inclement weather and will be made up as part of a single admission doubleheader on Tuesday, May 28, 2024.
Tylor Megill Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+105)
I’m going back to the well. Last Monday, Megill made his first start at the MLB level since March 31. It was against the Guardians. His strikeout prop was set at 3.5 on the DraftKings Sportsbook. Megill proceeded to strike out seven opponents over five innings. He threw 87 pitches. He touched 97.5 mph with his fastball. He induced 13 whiffs. All and all, Megill proved that he’s an above-average strikeout artist — something that probably should have been apparent from his career 8.79 K/9 with the Mets. Or the fact that he registered an eye-popping 46.0% strikeout rate across three levels and 14.0 innings in his rehab assignment.
There should be no reason to think he can’t recreate that same level of success this afternoon versus the Dodgers. Though Los Angeles has usually been an elite lineup when it comes to strikeout suppression over the last half-decade, things have been slightly different in 2024. They aren’t suddenly the Mariners, yet the Dodgers do own the league’s 11th-highest strikeout rate dating back to May 13 (22.7%). Honestly, I’m more concerned about the weather forecast than the matchup. Keep an eye on the rain as we get closer to first pitch.
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